Latin America Economics Update Lula’s shock victory to cause Brazilian markets to tumble Lula’s surprise win in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election will dash hopes for reforms that would improve the public finances and strengthen growth prospects. A sharp fall in the real... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA fiscal policy gains, Ghana mineral export ban South Africa’s markets welcomed this week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), affirming our view that continued fiscal discipline and higher infrastructure spending are brightening the... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC minutes point to further policy tightening The MPC minutes of the RBI’s October MPC meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 25bps to 5.50% – give a fairly strong indication that the committee will follow up with further tightening over... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA may yet hike rates again RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish comments this week have heightened the risk of another rate hike in November. Elevated energy prices, the AI investment boom and weak productivity threaten... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Risks to our interest rate forecasts shifting to the upside The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting but will signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation. With little evidence that the tightening delivered so... 23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) With underlying inflation back above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, the case for further tightening remains on solid ground. 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (October 2026) The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% at today’s meeting, but we doubt this marks the end of the tightening cycle, and have pencilled in one hike for the BoK’s final meeting... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to sit tight in October Although the latest hot inflation readings and rise in inflation expectations will concern Fed officials, they still appear broadly intent on tightening policy at a measured pace. We therefore expect... 22nd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to finally hike with inflation risks too great to ignore The shift in the Bank of Canada’s language towards emphasising inflation risks from higher oil prices and downplaying the growth impact of new tariffs suggests a 25bp hike, to 2.50%, is finally on the... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Strong AI-related investment and resilient consumption should cause GDP growth to rebound in the third quarter and maintain a growth rate of about 2.5% in the coming year. Despite the recent slowdown... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (October 2026) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) started its rate cutting cycle with a 100bp reduction in the one-week repo rate to 36.00% today and, with inflation pressures subsiding, we expect an additional 850bp... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) After a very strong run, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth is still on course to average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon will push... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia: inflation pressures to drive further rate hikes With inflation pressures building, labour cost growth remaining high and credit growth strong, the conditions appear to be in place for the Czech central bank (CNB) to continue its tightening cycle at... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
