Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) opted to keep its benchmark one-week repo rate at 37.00% unchanged today, but we think it will begin cutting the policy rate at October’s meeting with a 100bp reduction... 10th September 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s growth to surprise on the upside Ghana’s economy slowed in Q2 on the back of weakness in the cocoa sector and we expect the effects of the energy shock to dampen growth over the rest of the year. But looser policy should help to... 10th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) The surprise fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate in August, to 14.5% y/y, means the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could still cut rates in Q4 (as we currently expect) but the latest pick up in... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% may be followed by communications that take a more cautious line, reflecting the strength of the latest inflation... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (August 2026) The rebound in Mexican inflation (to 3.3% y/y) has further to run in the coming months and we think the headline rate will end this year above Banxico’s projections this year. Combined with the Fed... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Soft EM food inflation is on borrowed time A severe El Niño and the lagged effects of the energy shock are likely to push EM food inflation up from current lows. Food is unlikely to be as important as core or energy prices in determining the... 9th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Banxico’s next move will be a hike The recent patch of soft inflation in Mexico is unlikely to be sustained and the headline rate will follow a higher path than the central bank (Banxico) anticipates. With Banxico likely to revise up... 8th September 2026 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Update Why QT may influence gilt yields for years to come A further slowdown of Quantitative Tightening (QT) may relieve some of the recent upward pressure on gilt yields, but only temporarily. And although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to... 8th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Respite for bonds may be limited and uneven We expect German bunds to fare well in the medium term, almost regardless of what the ECB says this week. But US Treasuries aren’t likely to get the same relief. 7th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada joins the hawks The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish message this week, but the latest labour market data suggest that it will be in no rush to normalise policy. 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed destined to be behind the curve? The economic indicators this week suggest that the economy and labour market are humming along while firms are increasingly concerned about inflation risks. Nonetheless, the communications from Fed... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets turn increasingly hawkish in Poland The strength of the GDP and inflation figures out of Poland this week, alongside rising energy prices, have led investors to price in 75bp of interest rate hikes over the next year. While our base... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The art of the oil deal, BCCh’s growth worries The US-Venezuela oil deal has made a splash this week, but we it seems unlikely that it will result in a major pick-up in Venezuelan oil production in the near-term. Elsewhere, the sharp drop in the... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese firms continue to weather energy shock The Japanese economy has continued to shrug off the energy shock. Corporate profit margins rose to a record high in Q2, while industrial production held up well in July as supply shortages eased. That... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
