Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s tightening cycle is likely at an end The RBA left the door open to further tightening when it hiked rates by 25bp this week. However, policy is already well into restrictive territory and much of this year’s tightening has yet to work... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Gauging the risk of persistent inflation Years have past since the 2022 energy shock, and yet much of the thinking behind commentary on the implications of surging energy prices for inflation and monetary policy remains muddled. Relatedly... 1st October 2026 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update No reprieve for the housing market yet Australia’s housing downturn still has further to run, even if there are tentative signs that demand is beginning to stabilise. Weakening housing market conditions should help ease shelter inflation... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside growth risks to limit rate hikes Trade uncertainty and lower immigration will limit GDP growth to 1.5% next year, keeping core inflation from drifting too far back above target. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada will only hike twice... 30th September 2026 · 14 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
RBI Watch RBI poised to kick off hiking cycle The consensus has come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of the upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 7th October. After... 30th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026) The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China's targeted stimulus not enough, fiscal push remains key China’s latest stimulus package eschews broad-based easing in favour of targeted measures to support housing demand and bank lending to specific sectors. It is unlikely to have a big impact on its own... 30th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Public sector still not providing helping hand to RBA The public sector has reined in its profligate tendencies ever so slightly in recent quarters, but the 2026/27 state and federal Budgets point to continued strong growth in government spending. That... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook AI boosting Asian growth, but support will fade Booming exports of AI-related products have helped offset the drag from higher energy prices and should continue to support growth across most of Asia in the near term. The AI boom is not feeding... 29th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is... 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2026) The RBA hiked rates as expected, but it left the door ajar for further tightening in the months ahead. While we continue to believe that the cash rate has now peaked, risks to this view are growing. 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 26) Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re optimistic relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 28th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2026) The world economy has gained momentum in Q3. Business surveys have improved, trade is booming amid the AI buildout, and consumption has been resilient to high energy prices. Meanwhile, jobs growth has... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Near-term pain, better times ahead The ongoing energy price shock is a further temporary setback to the UK economy rather than a permanent blow. If we’re right that over the next year the economy and labour market won’t be strong... 28th September 2026 · 14 mins read
