Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The Mexican central bank’s board made clear that today’s 25bp cut to the policy rate (to 6.25%) is a one-off. But even so, it’s hard to square this decision with the recent sharp fall in the peso... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Gauging the macro impact of El Niño The experience from the two most recent El Niños is that the current one is unlikely to cause a major shock to EM growth, but that it could add to inflation and worsen trade balances, particularly in... 5th November 2026 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE hikes more likely to be small and short rather than large and long The rise in interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% announced by the Bank of England today is more likely to mark the start of small and short-lived rise in rates rather than the large and long-lasting... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The Czech National Bank’s 25bp hike today, to 4.00%, is likely to be followed by one more increase in the cycle next year. Market pricing has shifted down towards our view in recent days but still... 5th November 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Nov. 2026) The rise in interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% announced by the Bank of England today is more likely to be part of a small and short-lived rise in rates rather than the large and long-lasting rise... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% signalled that further easing isn’t imminent. A resumption of the cycle is plausible next... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due later today... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA is probably done tightening The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. We expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut, but not until the second half of next... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 26) The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today, but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. Accordingly, we expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut. 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly AI trade is driving interest rate expectations Despite this week’s largely as-expected Fed October policy meeting and data showing strong GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures, investors have pared back interest rate expectations as the... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC’s policy shift doesn’t signal monetary easing The PBOC’s shift to an overnight policy rate target will give the central bank better control over short-term funding costs and marks another step towards a more conventional operating framework. But... 30th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the economy really withstand higher rates? With its hike this week, the Bank of Canada judges the economy to be able to withstand tighter monetary policy, allowing it to prioritise the upside risks to inflation. However, with GDP growth... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
