Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months. 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Parsing the RBI’s messaging, US Green Card curbs The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this week with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.50%) and Governor Sanjay Malhotra's worries about a "generalisation of inflation" suggest to us that further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2026) The rise in Brazilian inflation in September, to 4.6% y/y, was largely driven by the unwinding of the electricity discount in August and is unlikely to worry the central bank. We think an interest... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s conundrum, regional rating agency Contained inflation and higher FX reserves have given Kenya's central bank a buffer to avoid hiking interest rates for now, but we still think the shilling will eventually need to be devalued and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong growth in Vietnam, BSP hiking cycle not over Vietnam’s GDP growth surged to 10% y/y in the third quarter. However, rapid credit growth of around 20% is helping to fuel the boom, raising concerns that bad loans could rise and growth could slow... 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Flat yield curves are here to stay We don’t expect most major government yield curves to steepen much further in the medium term, despite the apparent recent rise in term premia. 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s recovery will remain gradual National income data released this week showed that New Zealand households are still saving at a high rate. However, with real income growth slowing and housing wealth continuing to fall, they are... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru to hike, but tightening cycle to be relatively short Despite near-term headwinds from El Niño and tight fiscal policy, Peru’s economy is set to record robust growth of 2.8-3.0% in the next few years and outperform most other Latin American economies... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (September 2026) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.5% y/y last month is likely to be followed by further increases. While this is partly a result of a rebound in food inflation, sticky services inflation... 8th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep. 15-16) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 16th September confirm broad support for raising the target range at that meeting, as well as further tightening down the line. However, given the... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
