Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. 26) The fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate from 15.9% in June to a lower-than-expected 15.4% y/y in July, suggest that the door is open to the resumption of the monetary easing cycle next month. 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC won’t defer rate cuts indefinitely In its Q2 monetary policy report published earlier this week, the PBOC vowed to make timely adjustments to policy but stopped short of signalling rate cuts. For now, the central bank seems focussed on... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Heatwaves pose bigger risks to inflation than activity Heatwave-related impacts on near-term activity are likely to be sector-specific, short-lived, and therefore have only a small influence on aggregate GDP. This summer’s scorching temperatures pose a... 14th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q2 GDP wrap-up, Turkish monetary easing incoming? The raft of Q2 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe highlighted that the region weathered the energy shock reasonably well but also that there’s a wide divergence in performances across the... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn will prevent further RBA tightening With the RBA still sounding hawkish, investors think that another rate hike over the coming months is more likely than not. However, we are reluctant to bet against history as the Bank has rarely... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stars are aligning for a September BoJ hike The Bank of Japan’s July Summary of Opinions suggests that the Board is increasingly open to stepping up the pace of tightening. With producer and import-price data pointing to persistent and broad... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s inflation outlook still benign South Africa’s inflation figures for July, due next Wednesday, are likely to show a temporary drop (probably to 4.3%) and the headline rate is likely to rise back to around 5% by early 2027. But we... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazil’s government borrowing costs so high? Media reports point to renewed scrutiny in Brazil over whether the central bank’s widely watched economic survey is pushing up public sector borrowing costs. But the key issue is that Brazil’s real... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jul. 2026) The drop in Brazilian inflation in July, to 4.4% y/y, leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its next meeting in September. 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery to be hampered by lending slowdown Private sector credit growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed sharply over the past year and we think it’s likely to act as a headwind to the recovery in non-oil sectors from the Iran war. 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 2026) The RBA predictably left rates unchanged at its meeting today.While the Board continued to talk tough on inflation, we don’t believe that it will go as far as to hike rates again this cycle. 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
