Global Economics Update What the bond sell-off means for monetary policy Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions which, if sustained, will weigh on economic activity. This has given rise to suggestions that tighter conditions are doing central banks’ job for... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th October 2026 · 0 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today, vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most analysts had initially expected the... 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: pressure to hike rates will continue to build The reintroduction of fuel price caps in Poland has eased immediate pressure on policymakers to hike interest rates, which had looked like a close call for the November rate setting meeting. Given the... 6th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The larger-than-expected drop in Turkish inflation last month, to 29.7% y/y, supports our view that the central bank (CBRT) will begin cutting the one-week repo rate at the MPC meeting later this... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Financial stability concerns won’t derail rate hikes While higher bond yields are creating valuation losses, higher interest rates are lifting banks’ lending margins. What’s more, higher rates are not creating major problems for insurance firms. The... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed can afford to be patient Both this week’s economic data and Fed commentary skewed dovish on balance, pushing back against the idea that the Fed will move again in October. 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal tightening, Romania under pressure The details of Russia’s 2027 budget point towards fiscal austerity, but it’s hard to view this as credible given spending pressures, particularly for the military. So there’s little reason to expect a... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2026) September’s HICP data show that almost all of the increase in inflation since the Iran war began is due to higher fuel prices and energy bills. There are some signs that the indirect effects of higher... 2nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity data provide comfort ahead of rate hike The upbeat activity data released this week will have provided the RBI with some extra comfort ahead of next week's policy announcement. With rising inflation the key focus, we expect a 25bp increase... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to our interest rate forecasts are growing The data released this week vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation and we expect the Bank to keep hiking rates once every quarter. With few signs that higher interest... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
