Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Sep.) At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Business rate rises will become less painful Today’s consumer prices figures brought the news that RPI inflation in September – the rate which will be used to uprate business rates next April – was 2.6%. While this will be another chunky rise in... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s fall in inflation took it within a whisker of its 2% target. Although this is likely to be the last drop for a while, we still expect the weakness of the economy to pull inflation... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation pushed up by diesel price hike The increase in India’s headline inflation rate, to 7.8% in September, reinforces our view that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s appreciation another positive for inflation outlook Tomorrow’s inflation figures could show CPI inflation falling below its target for the first time since November 2009. And we still see scope for inflation to fall further over the next year or two... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a five-year high of 83.1 in October, from 78.3, but we're not convinced this upturn will lead to faster consumption growth. For a... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 12) September’s data show that inflationary pressures eased further in Egypt, with core inflation falling to a six-year low. But an interest rate cut is unlikely next week. 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Oct.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator points to a slight improvement in Argentine growth over the past month or so. Even so, we think that GDP probably contracted by around 1.5% y/y in Q3... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Inflation in consumer prices was probably little changed in September. But the outlook is for higher inflation over coming months, which will make policymakers more cautious about further stimulus. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How far has the inflation outlook deteriorated? As things stand, the spike in global food prices since early June is likely to push up annual inflation in Latin America by around 0.5-1.0%-pts over the next six months or so. But while this is likely... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower inflation around the corner We expect annual CPI inflation to fall from an already muted 1.6% this year to only 1.2% next year, as GDP growth slows and economic slack increases. The outlook for 2014 looks much the same. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rate hike will do little to tame inflation The Uruguayan Central Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bps is unlikely to do much to tackle stubbornly high inflation. Strong price pressures are largely due to structural rigidities in the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation will not help to ease the pressure on households. Nonetheless, the increase is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained upward trend. 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
