UK Economics Focus The implications of the proposed inflation reforms Last week, methodological reforms to correct long-standing deficiencies in the RPI, RPIX and CPI inflation measures became a step closer to being implemented. These reforms look set to have a big... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stabilise at low levels despite more QE Inflation has fallen sharply this year and is likely to remain low. Admittedly, the rise in the price of oil and some agricultural commodities since June will push the headline inflation rate back up... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: inflation will rise with or without a grain export ban The Russian authorities have raised the prospect of export bans on grains to contain local food inflation. But past experience suggests that such moves have had little impact on domestic prices, and... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug. 12) The official 'core' inflation figure, which nudged down to 1.6% in August from 1.7% in July, is likely to decline further in the coming months as external and domestic risks dampen GDP growth. With... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria still in wait and see mode The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today and is likely to stay in wait and see mode over the coming months as the effects of a spike in global food prices feed... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) August’s fall in inflation suggests that July’s rise was just a temporary blip in a gradual downward trend. Barring a further rise in oil prices, inflation still appears to be on track to reach the... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector spurs modest pick-up in Nigerian growth The Nigerian economy picked up pace in the second quarter of this year, but problems in the oil sector mean that it is still growing below its potential. Nonetheless, with inflation remaining above... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian government bites the bullet on reforms Friday’s decision to liberalise foreign investment goes some way to dispel the impression of policy paralysis in Delhi. However, implementation of these reforms will be slow, and further measures are... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Consumer prices increased by a sizeable 0.6% m/m in August, largely thanks to a 9.0% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, even after that big monthly gain, the annual rate of inflation only... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Food inflation: no need to worry just yet The recent spike in global agricultural prices is likely to feed through to a pick-up in food inflation in most African economies in early 2013. But the shock to food inflation should be much smaller... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jump in Indian inflation pushes back rate cuts Today’s announcement that inflation rose to 7.6% in August eliminates any residual chance that India’s central bank will cut rates on Monday. Indeed, we now expect monetary policy to remain on hold... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher agricultural prices to have little inflation impact Even if it is sustained, this year’s rise in agricultural prices will have little impact on headline consumer prices, particularly in advanced economies. What’s more, we expect commodity prices to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers focussed on inflation risks for now The surprise decision this afternoon by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates reflects growing concerns over rising inflation among policymakers. Another hike in rates is possible by... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, which will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is inflation about to reach a turning point? Headline inflation rates across emerging Asia, which had been trending lower this year, look set to pick up in coming months. Nonetheless, inflation in the region is unlikely to rise sharply and... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
