Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up slightly last month. It is likely to rise further in coming months, constraining policymakers’ ability to support the economy. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Ind. Production (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) While July’s industrial figures showed that production bounced back fully from June’s drop, the sector still looks likely to struggle in the coming months. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s policymakers ready to act again All five central banks which announce their policy rate decisions this week are likely to signal that global worries are a key downside risk for local growth. Only in Korea do we expect a policy rate... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Glimmers of reform ahead of leadership handover China will unveil a new group of leaders in the next few weeks. There are tentative signs that they will finally start to grapple with the structural challenges facing the economy. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economy to prompt more stimulus by end of year The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was unsurprising and may partly have reflected a desire to wait to see what comes out of today’s ECB meeting. We still expect more asset purchases to... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Latest figures compound fiscal dilemma The poor run of public borrowing figures and growing calls for the Government to do more to support the economy have intensified the fiscal dilemma facing the Chancellor. 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone back in recession Recent indicators have supported the view that the euro-zone is now firmly in recession. GDP fell by 0.2% in Q2 after stagnating in Q1 and falling by 0.3% in Q4. And the business surveys so far point... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Dismal growth picture suggests more stimulus likely With the £50bn of extra asset purchases announced in July still underway, there is no immediate pressure on the MPC to do more this month. Nonetheless, the increasing sense of gloom about the UK’s... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Squeeze on real incomes to last even longer Hopes that a summer packed full of sporting and cultural events would boost consumer spending have been dampened by the weaker run of data over the past week or so. What’s more, the recent rise in... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) & Flash CPI (Aug.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in July, coupled with the pick-up in inflation in August, supports the view that the downturn in household spending will intensify in the second half of this year. 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values hit lowest level in July since May 2010 The economy is now estimated to have shrunk by 0.5% q/q in Q2. But the labour market delivered better news - employment rose strongly in the second quarter. However, inflation ticked up in July, and... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would QE3 mean for Asia? The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s August meeting strongly suggested that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in September. This week’s lead article assesses the... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
