Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 26) The continued strength of wage growth even after the end of the summer bonus will encourage the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to neutral levels sooner rather than later. 7th October 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2026) The rebound in the goods trade surplus in August, to its joint-highest since the start of 2025, owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of Section 338 tariffs. While it provides... 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index leaves our activity-weighted composite index consistent with GDP growth of around 2.5% in the third quarter, while its S&P Global counterpart points to an even... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Financial stability concerns won’t derail rate hikes While higher bond yields are creating valuation losses, higher interest rates are lifting banks’ lending margins. What’s more, higher rates are not creating major problems for insurance firms. The... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed can afford to be patient Both this week’s economic data and Fed commentary skewed dovish on balance, pushing back against the idea that the Fed will move again in October. 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher yields add to the headwinds for consumers Higher yields are only a modest headwind for consumers but, at a time when real income growth is already slowing, they are another reason to expect weaker consumer spending growth in the coming... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep. 2026) The softer payroll gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it has helped trim investors’... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to our interest rate forecasts are growing The data released this week vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation and we expect the Bank to keep hiking rates once every quarter. With few signs that higher interest... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s tightening cycle is likely at an end The RBA left the door open to further tightening when it hiked rates by 25bp this week. However, policy is already well into restrictive territory and much of this year’s tightening has yet to work... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) With 30-year fixed mortgage rates now at a near three-year high of 7.3%, the near-term outlook for home sales and prices remains weak. However, we expect things to improve from next year as energy... 1st October 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Gauging the risk of persistent inflation Years have past since the 2022 energy shock, and yet much of the thinking behind commentary on the implications of surging energy prices for inflation and monetary policy remains muddled. Relatedly... 1st October 2026 · 16 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 2026) The surprise 0.2% m/m fall in house prices in September (CE & consensus forecast 0.0% m/m) increases the risk that a further rebound in mortgage rates and/or uncertainty over possible tax hikes in the... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update No reprieve for the housing market yet Australia’s housing downturn still has further to run, even if there are tentative signs that demand is beginning to stabilise. Weakening housing market conditions should help ease shelter inflation... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
