Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA may yet hike rates again RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish comments this week have heightened the risk of another rate hike in November. Elevated energy prices, the AI investment boom and weak productivity threaten... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly RENGO pushing for another large Shunto pay hike With the energy cost shock barely making a dent in Japan's trade balance and corporate profits going from strength to strength, trade unions are demanding another strong pay hike in next year's spring... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Risks to our interest rate forecasts shifting to the upside The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting but will signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation. With little evidence that the tightening delivered so... 23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) With underlying inflation back above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, the case for further tightening remains on solid ground. 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to sit tight in October Although the latest hot inflation readings and rise in inflation expectations will concern Fed officials, they still appear broadly intent on tightening policy at a measured pace. We therefore expect... 22nd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The macroeconomic limitations on S&P 500 earnings growth Although S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have grown far more quickly than the US economy since the start of the AI revolution, this isn’t bound to last even if Q3 2026 is another bumper earnings... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to finally hike with inflation risks too great to ignore The shift in the Bank of Canada’s language towards emphasising inflation risks from higher oil prices and downplaying the growth impact of new tariffs suggests a 25bp hike, to 2.50%, is finally on the... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final... 22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2026) The pullback in headline inflation in Q3 won’t provide much comfort to the RBNZ, given that underlying price pressures continued to build. 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Sep. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September (consensus 3.4%, CE forecast 3.6%) mostly reflected higher fuel prices. There were also tentative signs that higher energy prices are... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Sep. 2026) The surge in mortgage rates in recent months has brought housing activity to a standstill, as shown by the collapse in pending home sales in September to their lowest level since the series began. 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Sep. 2026) The sharp decline in both single- and multifamily housing starts in September reflects homebuilders’ reluctance to start new projects amid the latest surge in mortgage rates, which will continue to... 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2026) The unexpected fall in the unemployment rate in August suggests the labour market may be starting to recover, but the big picture is that hiring remains weak. With businesses’ energy costs likely to... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The easing in core price pressures back to a roughly target-consistent rate, paired with recent weak Labour Force Surveys, should keep the Bank of Canada from hiking next week despite Governor Tiff... 19th October 2026 · 2 mins read
