UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2026) The further falls in PAYE employment and job vacancies in July show that the labour market continued to weaken. This supports our view that the labour market is not conducive of second-round inflation... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Section 338 tariffs further delay a worsening CUSMA The new Section 338 tariffs risk pushing the economy back towards recession, especially if Ottawa’s planned retaliation invites further aggression from the US. Worse still, a renewed trade war muddies... 17th August 2026 (Updated 24th August 2026) · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026) While core prices rose at their strongest pace in almost a year in July, the key drivers were temporary factors and the annual rate remained at the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The key message... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q2 26 Preliminary) GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q2 and with the government still limiting the pass-through from higher energy prices that should remain the case across the second half of the year. 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects improve for a deal to avert 50% tariffs Reports this week that the US is willing work with Canada to reduce, though not fully eliminate, some of its sector-specific tariffs make us slightly more confident that the 50% Section 338 tariffs... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Heatwaves pose bigger risks to inflation than activity Heatwave-related impacts on near-term activity are likely to be sector-specific, short-lived, and therefore have only a small influence on aggregate GDP. This summer’s scorching temperatures pose a... 14th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2026) Another broad-based rise in manufacturing sales in June poses upside risks to an already punchy second-quarter GDP estimate and, paired with recent strength in the labour market, leaves soft core... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul 2026) The fall in control group retail sales in July, together with downward revisions to growth in May and June, leave the consumer looking a little less healthy and further reduce the chance of the Fed... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn will prevent further RBA tightening With the RBA still sounding hawkish, investors think that another rate hike over the coming months is more likely than not. However, we are reluctant to bet against history as the Bank has rarely... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stars are aligning for a September BoJ hike The Bank of Japan’s July Summary of Opinions suggests that the Board is increasingly open to stepping up the pace of tightening. With producer and import-price data pointing to persistent and broad... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recent rise in Treasury term premia no cause for alarm Despite a recent rebound in ACM’s estimate of the 10-year Treasury term premium, to within striking distance of May 2025’s more-than-decade high of ~0.9%, we doubt it will rise further. 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jul 2026) The PPI data, together with the CPI data released yesterday, point to a 0.16% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in July. That would be marginally lower than the target consistent rate and, on the back... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in June and 0.4% q/q rise in Q2 (consensus & CE forecast 0.4%, BoE 0.3%) shows that the economy weathered the energy shock well in Q2. But with inflation yet to peak, we still think... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2026) July’s RICS survey shows that the near-term housing outlook remains weak and the risks to our forecast that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 are still skewed to the downside. But... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
