RBA Watch One more and done for the RBA With some of the upside inflation risks it had warned about now crystallising, the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25bp at its September meeting. However, we believe that will mark the end of... 22nd September 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2026) The penultimate public finances release before the Budget on 28th October paints a dismal picture, with the government once again borrowing more than expected. This supports our view that a small or... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms 2026: What’s at stake? The big risk after the midterms is that emboldened Democrats try to leverage the debt ceiling to achieve their policy aims, raising the possibility of a debt default. Admittedly, Republicans may lift... 21st September 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by mid-2027 Japan’s economy has coped with the energy shock well and we expect GDP growth to remain solid. While next year’s sales tax cut could result in inflation falling to very low levels, underlying... 21st September 2026 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Carney opts for diversification over retaliation Ottawa sent a clear message this week that it will not engage in further escalation of the trade war with the US, looking past the recently announced import ban to instead focus on opportunities... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug. 2026) The broad-based decline in manufacturing output in August suggests the factory sector may be on a weaker footing than we had previously thought, particularly as this does not capture the latest rise... 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Higher mortgage rates to squeeze households for longer The revisions to our forecasts this week mean the drag on activity from higher mortgage rates will be a bit bigger and last longer than we previously thought. This adds to our view that the coming... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s tightening cycle has much further to run The Bank of Japan accelerated its tightening cycle by lifting interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% today and we think it will tighten policy more rapidly than most anticipate over the coming... 18th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in August shows that the economy is still proving resilient to higher energy prices and borrowing costs. But we doubt this will last much longer. 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening need not spell trouble Japan's fiscal stance is turning more expansionary, but we think concerns about the public finances are overdone. The budget deficit is likely to remain contained, while both gross and net debt ratios... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Sep. 26) The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% today and we think it will tighten policy more rapidly than most anticipate over the coming months. 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Inflation was little changed in August but there are mounting signs that higher energy costs are feeding through and we expect it to rise above the BoJ’s 2% target before long 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Aug. 2026) 30-year fixed mortgage rates nearly hit 7% in the week ending 11th September and are likely to have risen further since, with the 10-year Treasury yield – their closely correlated benchmark – briefly... 17th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to drag its feet a bit longer on hikes The Bank of Canada’s communications suggest it is unlikely to hike in October unless the September CPI data deliver a large upside surprise, or oil prices rise much further. More generally, despite... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE ready to raise rates, but not as far as investors fear We have revised up our Bank of England forecasts and now expect interest rates to be raised from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25% in February. Our previous forecast... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Aug. 2026) While single-family housing starts rebounded in August, the fall in the number of building permits issued last month suggests this strength will be short-lived. The big picture remains that elevated... 17th September 2026 · 2 mins read
