Chief Economist's Note The Inflation Outlook and the Bond Market Sell-Off Two themes have dominated markets over the past few weeks: the sustainability of the AI investment boom, particularly the debt financing behind it, and the sell-off in bond markets, which at one point... 19th October 2026
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening The evidence that the neutral rate of interest has continued to rise is mixed. And with excess demand now clearly diminishing, we’re not convinced that further monetary tightening is warranted. 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks show little sign of abating The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with core inflation on both measures surprising to the... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Impacts of renewed trade war mixed so far The recent downturn in the manufacturing sector is not entirely attributable to the US' new Section 338 tariffs, though timelier data on new orders suggest there could be more downside yet to be felt. 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global headwinds threaten UK’s economic resilience While the economy has shown remarkable resilience to higher energy prices and borrowing costs so far this year, we still think the coming rise in inflation will lead to an easing in GDP growth from 1... 16th October 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing output in September will ease jitters around August’s unexpected fall. While the strength of the AI buildout looks to be masking weakness in other areas feeling the bite... 16th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch. (Oct. 2026) The rise in mortgage rates has sent the housing market into reverse, with sales and prices both falling in September. The near-term risks to mortgage rates lie to the upside, which means prices could... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PPI weakness masks persistent price pressures September’s decline in producer prices should not be interpreted as evidence that inflation is fading. The fall was driven by a handful of idiosyncratic factors, while a closer look at the data... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Looser labour market means policy is tight enough The RBA argued that monetary policy was only “somewhat restrictive” at its September meeting. However, the Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate further at that meeting means that policy is now more... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update How would Canada fare without Quebec and Alberta? The blow to GDP from the loss of Quebec industry and Alberta’s oil and gas sector could be mediated somewhat by continued free trade, firms relocating from the seceding provinces to the rest of Canada... 15th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing sales in August was purely down to price effects, with volumes unchanged as new Section 338 tariffs began to weigh on the factory sector. Combined with a sharp contraction... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise in producer prices in September was driven in part by the components that feed directly through to the core PCE deflator, with our estimate now pointing to a 0.35% m/m gain. That... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation outlook doesn’t justify market rate expectations Our latest deep dive into the drivers of inflation reinforces our view that markets are overstating the risk of persistent price pressures and pricing in too many interest rate hikes. After rising in... 15th October 2026 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in August built on two consecutive 0.4% m/m gains in the previous two months and continued the remarkable resilience of the economy to higher energy prices and borrowing... 15th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2026) The clear deterioration in labour market conditions should give the RBA greater confidence that policy settings are adequately restrictive. 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in September was broad-based rather than due to any obvious temporary factors, therefore bringing an October rate hike back into play and presenting upside risks to our... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
