UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jul. 2026) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position and highlight the limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile, the weakness in retail sales volumes... 21st August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s bark will be worse than its bite With the RBA keeping up its hawkish rhetoric, financial markets continue to see another rate hike this cycle as more likely than not. We remain sceptical. Data released this week show that labour... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMI (Aug. 26) The strength in the August PMI adds to the case for the BoJ to hike interest rates as soon as next month. 21st August 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (July 2026) With underlying price pressures intensifying, we’re growing more confident in our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again at its meeting next month . 21st August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy has weathered the energy shock well as Japan has been able to secure sufficient crude... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (July 2026) With the labour market continuing to cool, we doubt that the RBA will tighten policy any further despite its recent hawkish messaging. 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily AI explains why US equities are largely indifferent to bonds Today’s big retreat in long-dated Treasury yields, triggered by the news of a doubling of liquidity support, gave the S&P 500 a fillip after a prior slump in bonds had begun to take a toll on the... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026) CPI inflation rose from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July (consensus forecast 2.9%, BoE & CE 2.8%) and the lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift it to around 3.5% later this year. But as... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 26) Wage growth was weaker last quarter than the RBA had expected and supports our view that the Bank is done tightening. 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of housing tax changes still difficult to detect While there’s a risk that the tax changes announced in the Budget will result in a more pronounced downturn, for now we’re comfortable with our forecast of a 6% peak-to-trough fall in house prices. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Jul. 2026) The renewed rise in mortgage rates in July squeezed would-be home buyers’ budgets, causing pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications both to fall. This points to further downward pressure... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jul. 2026) The small rise in manufacturing output in July told much of the same story of late, with production of high-tech products amid the AI buildout sustaining modest growth in an industrial sector being... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jul. 2026) Sharp declines in both single- and multi-family starts in July suggest developers were wary of starting new projects amid the renewed rise in mortgage rates. But stronger permit issuance across both... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) We expect the recent softening in house price growth to continue over the rest of this year as mortgage rates fall only gradually. In fact, the lack of a sustained recovery in buyer sentiment suggests... 18th August 2026 · 1 min read
