UK Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes and the two-speed economy The impending interest rate hikes from the Bank of England may exacerbate the two-speed economy by weighing on consumer spending by more than business investment. So over the next year or so, the... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug. 2026) The unchanged GDP reading in August and projected 0.1% m/m fall in September implies that the economy grew by 1.3% annualised in the third quarter. This is not only far below the Bank of Canada’s... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will resume tightening cycle in December The Bank of Japan delivered no surprises when it kept its policy rate unchanged today and declared victory in its quest to lift inflation towards its 2% target. We expect the next rate hike to come in... 30th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October (Capital Economics forecast +0.1%, consensus -0.1%) is probably a brief hiatus in the recent decline in prices rather than a sign of... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Restrictive policy will bring inflation to heel With Australia's inflation problem proving stubborn, we expect the RBA to hike again next week. Core market services inflation has accelerated, while rising import costs for electronics threaten to... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Decline in public debt to GDP ratio has further to run Japan’s ratio of gross government debt to GDP fell has fallen 200% for the first time since 2017 as the return of inflation has resulted in a strong improvement in the budget balance and boosted... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (October 26) The Bank of Japan delivered no surprises when it kept its policy rate unchanged today and declared victory in the fight against deflation. We expect the next rate to come in December, with rates... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Sep. 26), Tokyo CPI (Oct. 26) The end-month data rush shows that economic activity is holding up, the labour market remains very tight and inflation continues to strengthen. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (October 2026) The world economy remains resilient, with business surveys suggesting that growth has accelerated in recent months. World trade is expanding strongly, helped by the AI buildout, while consumption has... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Despite a modest boost to housing demand from the Your First Home scheme, high mortgage rates will limit house price gains to just 1.5% in the year to Q4 2027. By making it difficult for renters to... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will insurance hikes spiral into higher rates for longer? The Bank of England will almost certainly raise interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% at its meeting on Thursday 5th November and may lay the ground for a rise to 4.25% shortly after. We don’t think this... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Budget offers little respite for housing and landlords While the Budget on 28 th October was small for housing, the surprise was the further tax hike on private landlords’ rental income from April 2027. By either directly raising rents as landlords pass... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Can blockbuster S&P 500 EPS growth continue? Our base case is that the surge in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) since the start of the AI revolution won’t continue next year. Indeed, we suspect it will partly reverse, undermining the index in... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2026) September’s money and lending figures suggest households are still cushioning the blow from higher energy prices by borrowing more and saving less, and that high mortgage rates continue to restrain... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (October 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Underlying inflation in Australia gained traction in Q3, while leading indicators suggest that it will... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Warsh reforms to enter a new phase next year While today’s decision by the FOMC to leave interest rates unchanged was accompanied by two hawkish dissents, this was not a huge surprise, only confirming our strong suspicion ahead of the meeting... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
