US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump may yet tighten the screw further While the Trump administration's planned import ban on some Canadian goods doesn't change much for the growth outlook, further escalation such as US withdrawal from CUSMA could be disastrous. We... 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed set to hike next week and by 75bp in total The firm August price data means we are reinstating our prior forecast that the Fed will hike this month and by 75bp in total. That would take the fed funds target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. 11th September 2026 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the BoE stay on hold while the ECB and Fed hike? As the Bank of England’s situation is a bit different to the Fed’s and the ECB’s, it is possible for the Bank to go it alone and not raise interest rates. The risks to that forecast, though, are one... 11th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger inflation points to further yen gains This week’s producer price and wage data show that inflationary pressure in Japan remains firm. That should set the stage for the Bank of Japan to pick up the pace of policy tightening. Meanwhile, the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2026) The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real GDP in July suggests that the resilience of the economy in the first half of the year continued into the second half, partly due to AI-related activity. But higher... 11th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly One more RBA hike should do the job RBA policymakers continued to signal concerns about upside risks to inflation, while survey data showed that firms still face elevated price pressures. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% later this month... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2026) The fall in existing home sales to 3.98m annualised in August will likely be followed by further declines over the next few months, as mortgage rates look set to climb above 7% amid a further selloff... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Holding while others hike Even though the ECB has raised interest rates again and the Fed appears close to a hike, we are not expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday 17th September, or... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2026) The key components of the PPI that feed into the core PCE deflator were fairly strong in August, raising the chance of the Fed hiking interest rates next week. Admittedly, that still depends on the... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing weakness not over yet Although the housing market wasn’t quite as weak in August as in recent months, the risk is that a further rebound in mortgage rates and/or speculation of tax rises ahead of the Budget dampens demand... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why QT may influence gilt yields for years to come A further slowdown of Quantitative Tightening (QT) may relieve some of the recent upward pressure on gilt yields, but only temporarily. And although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to... 8th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZ Labour’s tax plan risks delaying housing rebound Opinion polls suggest that New Zealand’s Labour party has a path back to power in November’s general election. Labour’s plan to introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment property risks... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
