US Economics Update Fed holds as markets struggle to get a handle on Warsh The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Burnham’s ambitions will soon collide with fiscal reality The PM has so far outlined ambitious plans that might cost over £45bn (1.5% of GDP). But market constraints and his commitment not to hike the big three taxes means his ambitions will soon collide... 29th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Reintroducing Help to Buy wouldn’t solve housing’s problem While a new Help to Buy scheme would stimulate homebuilding in the near term, it’s not a sustainable solution to low housing supply. The government would be better off easing some of the structural... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2026) June’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market remains weak, households may be funding some of the decent spending in June by lowering their saving rate, and... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2/June 2026) With underlying inflation surprising to the downside in Q2, the RBA is unlikely to feel an urgency to hike rates in the near term. 29th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions likely to tighten again The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then... 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2026) Although house prices regained some momentum in May the recent rebound in mortgage rates to around 6.8% will further weigh on affordability, suggesting this won’t be sustained. 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Tariff wall rebuild underway The new forced labour Section 301 tariffs that took effect today are only part of the administration’s broader strategy to push the average tariff rate back towards its pre-IEEPA-ruling level of... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Latest tariff threat highlights splintering provincial fortunes The newly announced Section 338 tariffs heap more pain on particular industries while again leaving items such as energy and fertiliser unscathed. This special treatment is shaping relative growth... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two mounting upsides to our inflation and interest rate forecasts The recent rebound in oil and gas prices and the prospect of looser fiscal policy under the new Burnham government suggests the risks to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.0%, CPI inflation to fall to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jul. 2026) July’s flash PMI figures show that the stagflationary pressures faced by the Bank of England continued to soften. But the recent rebound in energy prices suggests that all of these trends may not last... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2026) June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war in Iran began. This supports our view that the economy performed... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening has further to run Our fiscal tracker shows a marked acceleration in public spending since PM Takaichi came to power. While we expect the budget deficit to remain very low this year as spending growth has yet to surpass... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong jobs, higher fuel prices keep rate hike in play June’s employment surge shows that Australia’s labour market remains resilient despite some broader cooling, while the sharp rise in regional fuel benchmarks is likely to push domestic pump prices... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will signal further tightening The Bank of Japan will certainly leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. With crude oil prices on track to reach their earlier peaks by the time of that meeting, we expect the Bank to... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
