Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2026) The clear deterioration in labour market conditions should give the RBA greater confidence that policy settings are adequately restrictive. 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in September was broad-based rather than due to any obvious temporary factors, therefore bringing an October rate hike back into play and presenting upside risks to our... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2026) While existing home sales edged up in September, the bigger picture is that they remain below the 4m annualised mark associated with a very weak market, weighed down by elevated mortgage rates... 13th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How much is AI-related activity boosting GDP? We estimate that direct AI investment effects have contributed 0.3%-points to GDP growth over the past year while the wealth effects on consumption have been of a similar size. If equity values fall... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Recovery delayed by higher mortgage rates The upward revisions to our Bank Rate and gilt yield forecasts due to the ongoing energy price shock suggest higher mortgage rates will remain a drag on housing for longer. Our forecast is for house... 13th October 2026 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2026) While the Board continued to strike a hawkish tone in September, we’re sticking to our view that the cash rate has already peaked. 13th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2026 Preview - Unfinished fiscal business We think the Chancellor, John Healey, will opt for a compromise Budget on Wednesday 28th October, with limited implications for the economy and the markets. But this just delays the difficult... 12th October 2026 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When should Burnham call a general election? To the extent that the economy matters in determining the timing of general elections and their result, our economic forecasts and the government's tax and spending plans imply that 2028 looks like a... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2026) Large back-to-back employment declines in August and September, alongside a tick up in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, mean it will take a big upside surprise in the September CPI release in a couple... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Refined product prices pose upside inflation risk The surge in refined petroleum product prices has amplified the inflationary impact of this year’s energy shock, pushing fuel inflation above levels implied by crude oil prices alone. While we expect... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2026) The latest rebound in mortgage rates and/or speculation of tax rises ahead of the Budget on 28th October dampened housing demand in September and this trend is likely to continue. With the risks to... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep. 15-16) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 16th September confirm broad support for raising the target range at that meeting, as well as further tightening down the line. However, given the... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the bond sell-off means for monetary policy Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions which, if sustained, will weigh on economic activity. This has given rise to suggestions that tighter conditions are doing central banks’ job for... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
