Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget?

We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses an upside risk to our forecast for the 10-year gilt yield to fall from 4.60% now to 4.25% by the end of 2026.

We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3.00pm GMT on 26th November responding to the Chancellor’s Budget and assessing what it means for the economy, housing and financial markets. (Register here.)