Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Hot inflation raises risk of higher yields for longer Hot US inflation data has put an October Fed hike back on the cards and sparked a dual sell-off in stocks and bonds. Our base case is for both to rally into year-end, but today’s news is another sign... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget preview - what to expect, and what it means for markets 22nd October 2026, 3:00PM BST John Healey's first Budget is being watched closely as a statement of intent for the Burnham government.
Capital Daily The outlook continues to darken for the euro Euro-zone spreads and the euro have stabilised over the past couple of days and plenty of bad news on French politics now appears priced in. That said, it is hard to make an optimistic case for the... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Will the UK Budget prompt a bond market backlash? Our base case is that the Chancellor will not loosen fiscal policy by much at the Budget on 28th October, preventing a bond market backlash. But his margin for error is small, and a loss of investor... 13th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Treasury yields to fall further, eventually We continue to expect Treasury yields to fall further, although the inflation picture and Fed may be stiff near-term headwinds. 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Flat yield curves are here to stay We don’t expect most major government yield curves to steepen much further in the medium term, despite the apparent recent rise in term premia. 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the bond sell-off means for monetary policy Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions which, if sustained, will weigh on economic activity. This has given rise to suggestions that tighter conditions are doing central banks’ job for... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market turmoil just the latest blow for French stocks Turmoil in France’s bond market has added more pain to an already miserable year for equities there, and we doubt a big recovery is likely anytime soon. 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th October 2026 · 0 mins read
