Capital Daily Three key points on the blue tsunami & US markets While the equity market has, in aggregate, reacted positively to the US mid-term election results, the extraordinary gains for the Democratic party poses another potential headwind to the AI trade... 4th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Solid external position a buffer for the rupiah, for now Indonesia has a relatively solid external position, with the current account deficit still small and foreign exchange reserves comfortably covering the country’s short-term external financing needs... 4th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Interactive Markets Chart Pack We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets, and how we expect them to perform over the coming years. Note: This Chart Pack is... 2nd November 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2026) Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher global bond yields. Our aggregate EM... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s FX war chest is smaller than it looks The RBI’s FX reserves look plentiful but the headline figure overstates the central bank’s firepower, owing to a swollen forward book and sizeable holdings of gold. A renewed, sustained bout of rupee... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the market fallout in Brazil President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound not a cause for panic The latest fall in the Egyptian pound may delay interest rate cuts and raising the cost for the government of servicing its FX debts. But these challenges should be manageable. And the bigger picture... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to hike on Wednesday to support rupiah The further sell-off today in Indonesia’s financial markets following MSCI’s latest threat to downgrade the country’s stock market means that a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.00%, at Bank Indonesia’s... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee rally requires an improvement in fundamentals The rupee has rallied this week after the RBI introduced measures to curb dollar demand and deter speculative positioning. But while these steps have provided near-term support, a more durable... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The outlook continues to darken for the euro Euro-zone spreads and the euro have stabilised over the past couple of days and plenty of bad news on French politics now appears priced in. That said, it is hard to make an optimistic case for the... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
