Canada Economics Update Ottawa prioritises growth over deficit reduction The federal government’s decision to spend nearly all of its newly projected windfall revenues gives the Bank of Canada even more free rein to focus on the upside risks to inflation. We therefore... 6th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA local elections unlikely to rock GNU stability, for now South Africa’s municipal election results show that the power of the African National Congress (ANC) has further diminished, giving the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) greater power to push for... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US mid-terms and the Iran war, Saudi budget deficit The US mid-terms and a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region have reduced the threat of a renewed escalation of the Iran war and also raised hopes that a political solution to the conflict may... 5th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Q3 growth stumble not huge cause for concern Despite the disappointing Q3 GDP figures, we still think that Hungary’s economic outlook has fundamentally improved since Tisza’s election victory in April. We expect growth to strengthen to 2.5% next... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Blue tsunami in midterms increases policy risks for markets The magnitude of the gains for the Democrats in the midterms does not change too much for the near-term policy outlook, given the party still lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria borrowing more, South Africa reforms Nigeria's ambitious borrowing plans suggest that the oil windfall (and more) will be spent, leaving the public finances vulnerable to a fall in oil prices and slower nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Decline in public debt to GDP ratio has further to run Japan’s ratio of gross government debt to GDP fell has fallen 200% for the first time since 2017 as the return of inflation has resulted in a strong improvement in the budget balance and boosted... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2026) Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher global bond yields. Our aggregate EM... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (October '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a sustained return to pre-war energy exports won’t... 29th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s GDP upgrade flatters economic challenges The revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data mean the economy is now 5% larger, at $450bn, than previously estimated, which lowers headline public finance ratios. However, this will not change... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s market rout threatens growth more than inflation The post-election fall in the Brazilian real is likely to add only modestly to inflation over the next year. The bigger concern is the sharp rise in bond yields which, if sustained, threatens to... 29th October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the debt to GDP ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget... 28th October 2026 · 14 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth starting to recover Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in September as the drag from summer typhoons eased. But growth remains weak by recent standards and increasingly reliant on external demand... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
