UK Economics Update Burnham’s ambitions will soon collide with fiscal reality The PM has so far outlined ambitious plans that might cost over £45bn (1.5% of GDP). But market constraints and his commitment not to hike the big three taxes means his ambitions will soon collide... 29th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s growth steady in Q2, despite Iran war Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in June and held steady over Q2. While weak domestic goods demand has dented industry, that has been offset by stronger services sector growth. 27th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal spending slows again Government spending has now been contracting for four months, according to data published this week, as local governments appear to be channelling bond proceeds into restructuring off-balance sheet... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two mounting upsides to our inflation and interest rate forecasts The recent rebound in oil and gas prices and the prospect of looser fiscal policy under the new Burnham government suggests the risks to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.0%, CPI inflation to fall to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening has further to run Our fiscal tracker shows a marked acceleration in public spending since PM Takaichi came to power. While we expect the budget deficit to remain very low this year as spending growth has yet to surpass... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Yen weakness - what's driving it and when it might turn 29th July 2026, 9:00AM BST The yen has fallen to a 40-year low against the dollar even as the BoJ has adopted a more hawkish tone and interest rate differentials have moved in its favour.
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2026) The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 - an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026) June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How quickly might Indonesia’s public debt rise? Indonesia is likely to break its 3% of GDP legal ceiling for the fiscal deficit this year. Still, given the low public debt level today, so long as the deficit stayed close to this level it would take... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia can still finance the war – but at a growing cost Russia’s fiscal strains are rightly receiving more attention, but we think the more alarmist commentary out there misses the key story. The problem is not that Russia cannot finance the war, but that... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? 21st July 2026, 2:00PM BST From "the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war period" to "the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen", Andy Burnham, the UK's next Prime Minister, has proclaimed a
