UK Economics Update BoE hikes more likely to be small and short rather than large and long The rise in interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% announced by the Bank of England today is more likely to mark the start of small and short-lived rise in rates rather than the large and long-lasting... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update AI’s economic boost may arrive sooner than expected Recent data raise the possibility that the AI-related boost to the economy’s sustainable growth rate that we have been forecasting for the 2030s happens sooner. Read the full publication to find out... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE ready to raise rates, but not as far as investors fear We have revised up our Bank of England forecasts and now expect interest rates to be raised from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25% in February. Our previous forecast... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Why QT may influence gilt yields for years to come A further slowdown of Quantitative Tightening (QT) may relieve some of the recent upward pressure on gilt yields, but only temporarily. And although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to... 8th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update Gilts are down but not out Higher energy prices alongside renewed fiscal concerns have pushed Gilt yields to multi-decade highs, but we continue to think they will fall back over the next year or so. We’ll be discussing the... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Small, medium or big, the Budget is unlikely to spark growth Regardless of whether the Chancellor, John Healey, opts for a small, medium or big Budget, economic growth is unlikely to be much stronger over the next few years. Our hunch is that a medium-sized... 27th August 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions? With Labour MPs unlikely to stomach big spending cuts and the markets unlikely to tolerate big increases in borrowing, higher taxes perhaps worth up to 0.8% of GDP may do the heavy lifting in funding... 10th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE rate hikes may remain more a threat than a reality Even though the Bank of England again talked up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3.00%... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Burnham’s ambitions will soon collide with fiscal reality The PM has so far outlined ambitious plans that might cost over £45bn (1.5% of GDP). But market constraints and his commitment not to hike the big three taxes means his ambitions will soon collide... 29th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Gilt yields to fall despite political headwinds Despite incoming PM Burnham facing the tricky task of maintaining investor confidence against a fragile fiscal backdrop and the potential for a prolonged US-Iran conflict, we expect Gilt yields to... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
