India Economics Update

RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run

The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most...

7th October 2026 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026)

The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today, vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most analysts had initially expected the...

7th October 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike

The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong...

2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read

RBI Watch

RBI poised to kick off hiking cycle

The consensus has come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of the upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 7th October. After...

30th September 2026 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike

The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the...

29th September 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2026)

The RBA hiked rates as expected, but it left the door ajar for further tightening in the months ahead. While we continue to believe that the cash rate has now peaked, risks to this view are growing.

29th September 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) left interest rates unchanged again today, at 6.50%, and the communications suggest that Banxico is likely to remain on hold. But we think the balance of factors will...

24th September 2026 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

24th September 2026 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026)

Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and, so long as the recent falls in the rupiah don’t morph into a sharp sell-off, we think interest rates will be left unchanged over the...

23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause

Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts...

22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026)

Hungary’s central bank (MNB) opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today and the easing cycle will probably be on pause through the rest of this year as the central bank introduces a new...

22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

One more and done for the RBA

With some of the upside inflation risks it had warned about now crystallising, the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25bp at its September meeting. However, we believe that will mark the end of...

22nd September 2026 · 8 mins read

Japan Economics Update

BoJ’s tightening cycle has much further to run

The Bank of Japan accelerated its tightening cycle by lifting interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% today and we think it will tighten policy more rapidly than most anticipate over the coming...

18th September 2026 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Bank of Japan Meeting (Sep. 26)

The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% today and we think it will tighten policy more rapidly than most anticipate over the coming months.

18th September 2026 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

BoE ready to raise rates, but not as far as investors fear

We have revised up our Bank of England forecasts and now expect interest rates to be raised from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25% in February. Our previous forecast...

17th September 2026 · 3 mins read