US Fed Watch Fed set to hike next week and by 75bp in total The firm August price data means we are reinstating our prior forecast that the Fed will hike this month and by 75bp in total. That would take the fed funds target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. 11th September 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Thoughts on a jam-packed week for monetary policy A busy week for monetary policy highlighted the growing divergence among the region's central banks. On the more dovish side, Poland’s appears in no rush to shift to interest rate hikes, while we... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German political uncertainty rising; ECB to hike again The strong showing of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany's state elections is likely to reinforce the difficulties that the federal government faces in implementing reforms and containing... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will hike again, but will be cutting next year There was no surprise at today’s rate hike by the ECB, but the Bank’s forecast revisions and President Lagarde’s remarks in the press conference suggest that policymakers are minded to raise rates... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Holding while others hike Even though the ECB has raised interest rates again and the Fed appears close to a hike, we are not expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday 17th September, or... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September meetings 17th September 2026, 3:00PM BST Join senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams, on Thursday 17th September, for this regular dive into the latest decisions and communications from these leading monetary
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message brings 2026 hike into play The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message today, saying “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and that it is “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”. We do not view this as a... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message alongside its policy rate announcement today, noting that “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and it is “prepared to adjust monetary... 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ tones down its hawkish bias a touch The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates as expected, but struck a more balanced tone on the risks to its outlook. Although another hike this year seems likely, we continue to expect the OCR to... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Sep. 2026) The RBNZ hiked rates as expected, but tempered expectations for further tightening. 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) opted to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 3.25% at today’s meeting, and with inflation likely to increase over the coming months we think it will opt for a temporary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September ECB hike looks nailed on The rise in natural gas prices in recent weeks, together with the continued strength of the euro-zone economy, mean that a September ECB hike now looks nailed on. Decisions thereafter will depend on... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch New tariff uncertainty supports Bank’s calls to be patient The Bank of Canada will likely highlight the need to balance the worsening growth and inflation prospects brought about by fresh tariffs at next week’s meeting. We therefore still expect the policy... 27th August 2026 · 6 mins read
