Africa Economics Update SA local elections unlikely to rock GNU stability, for now South Africa’s municipal election results show that the power of the African National Congress (ANC) has further diminished, giving the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) greater power to push for... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Blue wave could bring new geopolitical risks The Democrat sweep in the midterms could push President Trump to assert his authority in foreign policy, where the election makes little difference to his powers and he may seek to leave his mark... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Blue tsunami in midterms increases policy risks for markets The magnitude of the gains for the Democrats in the midterms does not change too much for the near-term policy outlook, given the party still lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria borrowing more, South Africa reforms Nigeria's ambitious borrowing plans suggest that the oil windfall (and more) will be spent, leaving the public finances vulnerable to a fall in oil prices and slower nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s comeback, Chile’s hawks Lula’s shock election victory led to dramatic market moves and he has done little since to reassure investors. Our working assumption is that he will adopt a more conservative fiscal stance in 2027... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of broadening US energy dominance? The US is evolving from an oil superpower into a broader energy superpower, increasingly underpinned by gaseous fuels such as natural gas and LNG. In addition to increasing the US’s control over... 29th October 2026 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the market fallout in Brazil President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from South Africa’s local elections South Africa’s municipal elections next week are set to deliver another setback for the African National Congress (ANC), with the Democratic Alliance (DA) likely to make gains. We think fears about... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s brain drain is harming its economic potential Malaysia’s brain drain is a longstanding challenge to its ambition to become a high-income economy. A large diaspora, much of it concentrated in Singapore, includes a significant number of skilled... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India steps up efforts to bolster oil security India’s oil imports from the Middle East have rebounded in the past couple of months as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have gradually recovered and the discount on Russian oil has largely... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s shock victory to cause Brazilian markets to tumble Lula’s surprise win in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election will dash hopes for reforms that would improve the public finances and strengthen growth prospects. A sharp fall in the real... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The midterms don’t mean enough for Ottawa to interfere Accusations that Ottawa is meddling in the upcoming midterm elections are unfounded given that which party holds Congress from next year will have little bearing on the state of the trading... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s credit risk, regional slowdown, Brazil votes The rise in Argentina’s country risk premium continued this week and seems to reflect concerns about Milei’s re-election prospects next year. The country’s recent history provides reasons to think... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two years of Prabowo: Indonesia heading down the wrong path Indonesia’s President Prabowo marked two years in office this week and, while the headline economic figures look good, his populist, interventionist approach to governing poses risks to Indonesia’s... 23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read
