As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as time has gone on shows that traders are continually reassessing assumptions that disruption to shipping through the Strait would be short-lived, and prolonged disruption could send oil prices above $100pb. Meanwhile, although competition between Asia and Europe for LNG cargoes may continue to push up natural gas prices in both regions, the fact that the global LNG market is better supplied than it was in 2022 means that prices are unlikely to rise as far as they did back then.
Note: We’ll be discussing supply risks across the energy market in an Drop-In briefing on Monday, 9th March at 09:00 EDT / 13:00 GMT. Register here for the 20-minute session.
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