Climate Economics Update COP31 struggles for relevance The forthcoming COP31 climate conference risks being overshadowed by the fallout from the US midterms. In any case, the more consequential developments for the green transition are continuing to take... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of broadening US energy dominance? The US is evolving from an oil superpower into a broader energy superpower, increasingly underpinned by gaseous fuels such as natural gas and LNG. In addition to increasing the US’s control over... 29th October 2026 · 17 mins read
India Economics Update India steps up efforts to bolster oil security India’s oil imports from the Middle East have rebounded in the past couple of months as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have gradually recovered and the discount on Russian oil has largely... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly When is an oil risk premium a risk premium? Many commentators have attributed the recent rise in oil prices to an increase in the oil risk premium. While rising geopolitical risks have certainly contributed to the rally, attributing it all to a... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US oil producers adopting a cautious supply response The lack of an aggressive supply response from US oil producers reflects uncertainty over the price outlook and large producers’ preference for returning higher free cash flow to investors. Looking... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy markets are learning to live with conflict The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone energy shock still much smaller than 2022 September’s euro-zone inflation data highlight that the energy shock is still much smaller than that in 2022, and the indirect effects of higher energy costs have so far been negligible. We suspect... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Houthi attacks on Riyadh The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, threaten to set back the recovery in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy, even if the damage to the tourism sector proves to be limited. The key... 12th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly G7’s oil plans are more peashooter than bazooka While the recent joint statement by the G7 succeeded in taking oil product export bans off the table for now , it stopped short of providing an additional boost to global petroleum supplies over and... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Why aren’t crude prices lower?; EU mulls diesel release Despite the pick-up in crude oil exports from the Middle East in late September, market participants appear to be factoring in a larger risk of crude flows falling back again than they did during the... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly US diesel ban; crude scarcity; China’s copper squeeze The prospect of a US ban on diesel exports threatens to make a bad situation worse, especially as signs of physical scarcity in the crude oil market have emerged. Our sense is that while the White... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The anatomy of the diesel “shock” It now seems more likely than not that some form of export restriction of US diesel will come into place ahead of the midterms which will exacerbate the ongoing diesel “shock”. Most refineries have... 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s appetite for oil has reached a fork in the road With the conflict in the Middle East constraining OPEC’s influence on oil supply, changes in Chinese oil demand have become the “swing” factor in the global oil market. China probably could cut back... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lessons from the pipeline attack; the Fed and commodities The net impact of the recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could even feasibly result in slightly higher oil flows over time. But the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to hit 4% by December We forecast headline inflation in the euro-zone to jump from 3.2% in August to 3.8% in September. And we think that increases in energy, food and core inflation will push it up to 4% by December. But... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
