Commodities Outlook Normality on hold The recovery in energy exports from the Middle East will take longer than we previously expected and is consistent with continued draws on global oil stocks as well as a further tightening in natural... 11th September 2026 · 15 mins read
Commodities Weekly Physical tightness driving oil prices; Iraq-xit on the cards? The fact that the spot price of Brent crude has risen faster and further than the front-month contract this week highlights the increasing strains in the physical oil market, and how the current bad... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone food inflation to accelerate in 2027 In today’s press conference, Christine Lagarde expressed surprise at the decline in food inflation this year. This decline largely reflects past moves in agricultural commodity prices. But recent... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Separating fact from fiction on Venezuela’s oil The deal reached by the US government to secure greater access to Venezuela’s oil reserves won’t provide a quick fix to Venezuela’s ailing oil industry nor the current bout of high prices. Other... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update New (higher) energy price forecasts With a swift resolution to the Hormuz crisis looking unlikely, our new working assumption is that energy flows from the Middle East only return to pre-war levels early next year. While we still... 3rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly The good, the bad and the ugly in the oil market Reports that more crude oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns about the availability of crude oil supply. Reasons for caution remain, though, as the White House's... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Can Canada become an oil and LNG superpower? The Canadian government has significantly shifted tack over recent years and now wants to double down on the country’s status as a net energy exporter by supporting large-scale oil and LNG... 27th August 2026 · 17 mins read
Event Drop-In: Commodities catch-up – What next for energy, gold and agriculturals? 3rd September 2026, 3:00PM BST Our Commodities team hosted a 20-minute online briefing on the latest developments across commodity markets on Thursday 3rd September.
Commodities Update Perfect storm is brewing for EU natural gas prices The recent rise in EU natural gas prices to their highest level in over three years has been driven by a combination of constrained LNG supply and hot temperatures lifting demand. Against the backdrop... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response “Economic D-Day” Sanctions (Aug. 2026) The announcement of the “greatest financial offensive ever” by the US ups the ante on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country. But with the renewed US naval blockade already... 24th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Crack spreads nearing a peak?; gold shines; El Niño looms While we suspect that the upward pressure on oil product price spreads could soon start to ease, this does not mean that they will necessarily come back down quickly. And even if spreads stabilise... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone headline inflation will soon rise to 3.5% The indirect effects of higher energy prices on core inflation in the euro-zone have been close to non-existent so far, but they are likely to build in the second half of the year. If energy prices... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
