Commodities Weekly Energy markets are learning to live with conflict The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone energy shock still much smaller than 2022 September’s euro-zone inflation data highlight that the energy shock is still much smaller than that in 2022, and the indirect effects of higher energy costs have so far been negligible. We suspect... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Houthi attacks on Riyadh The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, threaten to set back the recovery in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy, even if the damage to the tourism sector proves to be limited. The key... 12th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño to reduce upside risks for EU natural gas prices By helping to limit heating demand and natural gas consumption in late-autumn and early-winter, an El Niño-driven warm start to the winter in Europe could reduce the extent to which European gas-users... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: North Field to turbocharge the recovery Qatar’s economy has been dealt a much larger blow from the Iran war than many of its Gulf neighbours. So long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz flows more freely from early next year, as we... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to hit 4% by December We forecast headline inflation in the euro-zone to jump from 3.2% in August to 3.8% in September. And we think that increases in energy, food and core inflation will push it up to 4% by December. But... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Outlook Normality on hold The recovery in energy exports from the Middle East will take longer than we previously expected and is consistent with continued draws on global oil stocks as well as a further tightening in natural... 11th September 2026 · 15 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update New (higher) energy price forecasts With a swift resolution to the Hormuz crisis looking unlikely, our new working assumption is that energy flows from the Middle East only return to pre-war levels early next year. While we still... 3rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Can Canada become an oil and LNG superpower? The Canadian government has significantly shifted tack over recent years and now wants to double down on the country’s status as a net energy exporter by supporting large-scale oil and LNG... 27th August 2026 · 17 mins read
Commodities Update Perfect storm is brewing for EU natural gas prices The recent rise in EU natural gas prices to their highest level in over three years has been driven by a combination of constrained LNG supply and hot temperatures lifting demand. Against the backdrop... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone headline inflation will soon rise to 3.5% The indirect effects of higher energy prices on core inflation in the euro-zone have been close to non-existent so far, but they are likely to build in the second half of the year. If energy prices... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Setting the record “Strait”; TTF prices could remain hot While conflicting estimates of oil flows out of the Gulf have made it harder to assess the health of the global oil market, the path towards our base case for Brent crude prices to end this year at... 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy-intensive industrial production set to fall further Production in the euro-zone’s most energy-intensive manufacturing sectors rose in March and April, despite the jump in oil and natural gas prices. This is because firms’ gas and electricity costs did... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Where the upside risks lie for EU natural gas prices The slow summer rebuild of natural gas storage in the EU means that the price of the TTF benchmark will remain close to current levels over the winter, even if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz... 6th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Oil and natural gas markets remain sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. If a deal is reached, we wouldn’t expect energy prices to collapse immediately as it will likely take... 5th August 2026 · 1 min read
