Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Indirect effects of energy prices still absent The rise in energy prices this month means that, rather than falling in July as seemed likely a fortnight ago, euro-zone inflation now looks set to remain unchanged at 2.8%. But the absence so far of... 17th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data centre boom a mixed blessing for mining sector Strong electricity demand resulting from the rollout of data centres is a mixed blessing for Australia’s mining sector. It could boost demand for lithium to produce storage batteries and demand for... 17th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update US-Iran strikes are a reminder of upside risks to prices The latest exchange of military strikes in the Middle East supports our view that oil prices will be volatile over the coming months, and will face bouts of upward pressure. That said, under the... 8th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gasoline prices still pumped up; China LNG buying heats up While President Trump has accused gasoline retailers of price gouging and called for lower prices, disruptions to global refining activity – particularly in Russia – may prevent gasoline prices from... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while... 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Commodities Update There are no quick fixes for bypassing the Strait Reports that the UAE could have another oil pipeline up and running in 2027 have bolstered hopes of a rapid redrawing of the energy map in the Middle East which would negate Iran’s stranglehold over... 18th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Commodities Update Five factors to watch as the Strait of Hormuz reopens There is a lot of uncertainty about how the energy market and prices will evolve once an agreement is officially signed between the US and Iran. This Update highlights five key factors to watch in... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The road back to energy normality is getting longer The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
