Europe Economics Focus Core inflation dangers greater this time? Rising food and energy prices look set to prompt another period of high headline inflation in the euro-zone like that seen between 2004 and 2006. But with the economy operating closer to capacity, the... 15th November 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is stronger euro-zone productivity growth here to stay? The evidence suggests that the recent pick-up in euro-zone productivity growth was probably a temporary reflection of the cyclical strength of the economy rather than a permanent or structural... 22nd October 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can euro-zone consumers take the baton? If US consumers have been the driving force behind the world economy over the last decade or so, then European consumers might perhaps be described as a sleeping giant. But the giant could be about to... 22nd May 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus When will ECB rates no longer be "low"? The European Central Bank’s stance that euro-zone interest rates are still “low” suggests that it might have to raise them significantly further to contain inflation. But the existence of some spare... 20th February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone investment boom continue? Recent strong increases in euro-zone investment have been at odds with the continued weakness of consumer spending. But positive conditions in the corporate sector suggest that firms have not over... 6th February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will close the inflation gap? The last time the headline and core rates of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone diverged as they have over the last two years, it was a sharp rise in core inflation which eventually closed the... 29th November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone labour market about to hit the buffers? Estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment suggest that the euro-zone labour market could be about to hit capacity constraints. But we think that the labour market recovery has plenty further... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Euro-zone recovery sustainable? If our forecasts of a major slowdown in the US economy prove to be correct, then one crucial issue for the global economy is whether other parts of the world can compensate. With the euro-zone... 26th October 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone consumers finally ready to spend? For the first time in a number of years, the conditions are in place for a significant acceleration in the growth of consumer spending in the euro-zone. This should ensure that both GDP growth and... 29th March 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Where will euro-zone rates peak? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said little new in his testimony to the European parliament today. But whether the ECB begins to raise rates in December (as now seems likely) or early in 2006, there... 21st November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the ECB keeping government bond yield spreads low? A number of commentators have argued that the ECB is inadvertently keeping euro-zone government bond yield spreads artificially low because of the way it provides liquidity to the banking system. In... 19th October 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB cut rates? The case for a cut in euro-zone interest rates is straightforward: the economic recovery has lost momentum and monetary policy is one of the few remaining levers available to stimulate growth. Indeed... 26th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone economy live with a stronger euro? 18th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB intervene to restrain the euro? The ECB has already started to express concern about the rising euro. This has led to increased speculation about when the ECB might intervene to resist further strengthening. However, we believe that... 10th November 2004 · 1 min read
