Europe Commercial Property Outlook Smaller markets to outperform during the correction (Q1 2009) Over the next two years, falling capital values, generated by rising yields mean that total returns are likely to be low or even negative in many Euro-zone property markets with the smaller markets... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB steps up the pace The ECB’s 75bp interest rate cut to 2.5% is an encouraging sign that the Bank recognises the severity of the economic downturn after earlier hints that a more modest reduction was likely. Although... 4th December 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to deliver 50bp, but probably no more just yet While the latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is not prepared to slash interest rates quite as aggressively as some other central banks, at least another 50bp reduction this month seems like... 27th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lagging, but rates have much further to fall Following today’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 3.25%, President Trichet’s comments confirmed that the ECB is not about to slash rates as aggressively as the Bank of England. Nonetheless... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another 50bps now and much more to come Severe strains in financial markets and a rapid deterioration in economic conditions have finally prompted a turnaround in the ECB’s previously hawkish stance. This supports our long-held view that... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone rescue plan won’t halt the slowdown The announcement of a co-ordinated framework to kick-start interbank lending in the euro-zone and boost banks’ tier one capital has helped equity markets and the euro to rally. But we doubt that these... 13th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European interest rates to fall much further Today’s co-ordinated interest rate cuts by European central banks clearly demonstrate a determination to provide short-term stability to financial markets. As economic conditions continue to... 8th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown to push rates down to 2%. We have cut our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates in the euro-zone alongside those in other areas. But we still believe that the region’s relative lack of major economic imbalances point to... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates before year-end A much more dovish tone from President Trichet today suggests that the Bank will cut interest rates before the year is out. Markets are coming around to our long-held view that rates will reach 3%... 2nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fortis bailout adds to markets' worries Yesterday’s €11.2bn government bailout of Fortis Bank, the largest euro-zone bank rescue sinc the credit crunch began, is the starkest evidence yet that the region’s banking system is not immune to... 29th September 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Stubbornly focused on inflation risks Recent ECB communications have maintained a stubbornly hawkish tone, despite extreme tension in financial markets and growing evidence of weak activity. This month’s press statement is unlikely to... 25th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone slowdown – inflation squeeze or credit crunch? The downturn in the euro-zone economy largely reflects the temporary squeeze from high inflation rather than a fundamental adjustment triggered by the credit crunch as is the case in the US and UK... 23rd September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB set to disappoint markets in the near term Interest rate expectations in the euro-zone have fallen sharply along with those elsewhere in recent weeks and are now pricing in a strong chance of an ECB rate cut this year. While we think that talk... 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still fretting over inflation outlook The European Central Bank’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that interest rate cuts are not yet on the agenda. But we still expect slowing activity and falling energy inflation to... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to rip up the lending rulebook Thursday’s ECB press conference provides the Bank with a chance to provide greater details about any proposed changes to its collateral requirements for lending in its open market operations. While we... 3rd September 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Staff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospects Mounting evidence of a sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity has caused the chances of another interest rate hike to evaporate. But the ECB is still deeply concerned about upside risks to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
