Europe Economics Update ECB to tackle strong euro by cutting rates, not intervening Jean-Claude Trichet’s expressions of concern over the strength of the euro yesterday have prompted speculation that the ECB might intervene directly in the currency markets to prevent the currency... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB resists the pressure, for now The European Central Bank today poured cold water on suggestions that it might cut interest rates as soon as next month. But with the economy clearly slowing and the euro hitting new record highs, it... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Cracks in ECB's hawkish stance to widen We suspect that suggestions that the ECB will signal an imminent cut in interest rates at March’s Governing Council meeting will be disappointed. Nonetheless, with the new staff economic forecasts... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic weakness highlights downside property risks (Feb 09) The latest data suggest that the required adjustment in commercial property yields in the euro-zone continued in 2008Q4. But the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, reinforcing our belief that... 5th February 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Interest rates heading for 3.0%, eventually The ECB is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at February’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, denting hopes that it might cut interest rates within a couple of months. But with the... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Hawkish stance to soften in H2 Concerns about the inflation outlook in the eurozone are likely to keep the ECB firmly in hawkish mood in the early months of 2008. But slowing activity, falling overseas interest rates and the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far can the euro-zone de-couple from the US? The European and US economies have moved closely together over recent decades, with most major slowdowns in the US followed by an even deeper or more protracted downturn in Europe. But there are some... 3rd December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
