ECB Watch ECB still hesitant to pull out all the stops Euro-zone interest rates will almost certainly be on hold in June, but the focus has shifted to any developments regarding unconventional policies. The Bank is likely to confirm its intention to start... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone inventory overhang has yet to unwind Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t get too excited about the cycle’s twists and turns The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The biggest 'green shoot' is still missing While the latest OECD leading indicators brought further signs of the ‘green shoots’ of recovery in some euro-zone economies, Germany continues to suffer from the weakness in global trade. Until that... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Likely drop in Q1 spending not a sign of things to come Although euro-zone retail sales have dropped lately, other types of spending appear to have held up relatively well. Sadly, it seems unlikely that this trend lasted into the first quarter and we... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB disappoints on unconventional policies The ECB continues to lag behind. Although it delivered a 25bp interest rate cut today, the unconventional policy measures also announced look very timid compared to those already adopted by other... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's survey points to slower pace of credit tightening The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggested that constraints on the supply of credit in the US have eased in the second quarter. (See our US Economics Update “Fed’s survey suggests credit... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack The euro-zone rental recession gathers pace (May 09) In some sectors, most notably the office market, commercial property yields stabilised in Q1, or at least rose more slowly. But we doubt the upward yield shift is over. In any event, the rental... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB ready to take the plunge into QE? The ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% this month, where they should remain for some time. But after last month’s hints that further unconventional policies could be... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: Taylor rule points to much bigger stimulus needed The Financial Times recently reported that, according to internal analysis prepared for the Fed’s last policy meeting, the ‘ideal’ interest rate in the US should be minus 5%. The analysis was based on... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how serious is the threat of a euro-zone default? With the euro-zone set to enter its worst recession in the post-war period, concerns about the prospect of a member state defaulting on its debt have rocketed and even prompted speculation of a euro... 23rd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deteriorating fiscal position won't trigger a default The euro-zone 2008 budget deficit figures show that the health of the public finances in parts of the region has deteriorated at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, we think that the state of the public... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB moving towards unconventional policies Although the ECB’s 25bp interest rate cut was smaller than expected, the decision appears to have reflected a desire to maintain the corridor between the official rate and deposit rates rather than a... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Euro-zone capital values to fall by at least a third We have cut our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. We now expect capital values in most markets to fall by between 30% and 40% from their peak, with the bulk of those falls being seen by the end... 31st March 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Any hints of asset purchases? With the euro-zone recession still gathering pace, we see the ECB cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points to 1.0% this month. Indeed, it should not be long before rates reach 0.5%. But the... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
