UK Economics Update Weaker euro-zone economy to dent UK exports The recent weakening in the outlook for the euro-zone economy – the destination for around half of the UK’s exports – suggests that there is a risk that activity in the UK will be even weaker than the... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for some months yet Comments from the European Central Bank have retained a relatively hawkish tone, suggesting that it will be some time before the Bank is prepared to bolster the flagging economy with interest rate... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone could be first to enter recession Our view that the euro-zone economy would fare relatively well in the global downturn has been undermined by the latest news on Germany and the deterioration in the business surveys. It now looks... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Slowing activity will eventually prompt rate cuts Ongoing fears over the inflation outlook will leave the ECB in a fairly hawkish mood for now. But recent signs that the economy is stagnating (at best) support our view that interest rates will not... 31st July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not pre-disposed to further rate hikes A softer tone from the European Central Bank has supported our view that today’s interest rate hike will not be the first in a series. Indeed, given more signs lately of a marked slowdown in economic... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate hike will prove to be a one-off The ECB will deliver the signalled interest rate hike this month, despite further evidence of a slowdown in economic activity in the euro-zone. Inflation fears could keep the Bank in hawkish mode for... 26th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals intention to hike The European Central Bank sent a strong signal today that it is likely to raise interest rates in July or August. But the Bank’s inflation phobia clearly increases the risks of a sharp slowdown in the... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still talking tough, but next move will be down ECB President Trichet will maintain a familiarly hawkish tone at June’s press conference, perhaps adding to speculation that interest rates could yet rise further. We still expect inflation to... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending rates add to diverging growth trends Recent divergences in borrowing rates across different countries suggest that the impact of the credit crunch on households and corporates may be hitting some euro-zone economies harder than others. 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate cuts still some months away The European Central Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold clearly reflects ongoing concerns about the inflation outlook. What’s more, with no sign of any softening in the Bank’s hawkish... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic outlook to keep Club Med bond spreads elevated The narrowing in the spread between Club Med and German government bond yields over the past month is an encouraging sign that things could be returning to normal in the euro-zone bond markets. But... 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro not about to collapse Speculation is growing that the euro’s extended rally against the US dollar and UK pound is finally at an end. But with the euro-zone economy in fundamentally better shape than those of the US and UK... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cuts still some months away We expect the lack of a significant softening in the ECB’s hawkish tone at May’s press conference to confirm that the Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates for some months yet. But as the economy... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still talking tough After leaving interest rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive month today, the European Central Bank maintained a tough stance on inflation. But with the economy clearly slowing and the Bank hinting... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Not ready to signal rate cut The ECB seems likely to maintain a hawkish tone at April’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, suggesting that it has no immediate plans to cut interest rates. But as the economy slows... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
