Europe Economics Update ECB holds its line There were no surprises from the ECB today as it waits to judge the impact of previously announced plans to phase out its emergency lending to banks. But the Bank’s cautious tone on the economic... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s strong gain in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still coping fairly well with the euro’s strength. But industrial activity still looks unlikely to boost the... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Year challenges for the euro-zone For some time, we have been fairly optimistic about the prospects for the euro-zone in 2010. Nonetheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain and there are several risks which could derail the... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Unemployment (Nov.) November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Gently does it After outlining the start of its exit strategy last month, we doubt that the ECB will announce any further changes at the forthcoming meeting. The Bank might increase the interest rate on its... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental values will fall everywhere in 2010 The latest fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the wider economic recovery has not yet spread to the consumer sector, despite nine consecutive monthly rises in consumer confidence. And, as... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s rise in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, though, November’s fall in retail sales confirmed that the recovery has yet to reach the... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Nov.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Euro-zone producer price inflation continued to inch up in November. But it remains deep in negative territory, suggesting that pipeline inflationary pressures remain very weak and that core CPI... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Falling yields to bring an end to capital value declines in 2010 (Vol.1 2010) The euro-zone commercial property outlook improved markedly during the second half of 2009. It now seems probable that almost all markets will experience positive total returns in 2010, with Spain and... 4th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone recovery spread to the domestic economy? While the euro-zone is benefiting from the improvement in global trade conditions, the big issue is whether this will translate into any lasting pick-up in the domestic economy. There are reasons for... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starting to phase out unconventional support The ECB confirmed today that it is phasing out its emergency lending to banks, and perhaps a bit more quickly than had been expected. But the Bank is still downbeat about the economic outlook and we... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Treading carefully The ECB will probably confirm at the forthcoming press conference that December’s provision of 12- month bank loans will be the last. Together with possible hints about phasing out 6-month lending... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) October’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting any pick-up in broad money and bank lending. 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards the exit The latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is edging slowly towards the policy stimulus exit. But the outstanding stock of central bank loans to ommercial banks will remain very high for some... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
