Europe Economics Update Cyprus unlikely to be source of financial instability While Cyprus’s strong ties to Russia make it is vulnerable to recession, the country’s public finances and banking sector are in better shape than they were before the crisis which took place a decade... 17th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.) With the war in Ukraine pushing up energy and food prices and potentially exacerbating supply problems, we think euro-zone inflation will remain around 6% until Q4 and average well above 2% next year... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war will push up euro-zone food inflation Food inflation in the euro-zone is on the rise and the war in Ukraine will make matters worse. While policymakers might normally “look through” a period of high food inflation, with the headline rate... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Russian economic crisis will hit Cyprus hard Cyprus is by far the most exposed euro-zone economy to the collapse in Russia’s economy and it now looks very likely to fall into recession in the coming quarters. In this Update, we take a look at... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EZ corporate & sovereign spreads may converge again Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the ECB Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB accelerates taper despite Ukraine war In today’s monetary policy statement, the ECB said the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a watershed moment for Europe, but it concluded that it does not require a big change in monetary policy. Indeed... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU mulls another round of joint bond issuance The EU is considering more joint bond issuance, reportedly of around €200bn or 1.4% of EU GDP. If this is agreed, the devil will be in the detail and the amounts involved may fall short of some... 9th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EU’s pivot away from Russian gas will come at a price While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam office rental growth to outperform EZ While we don’t think that 2021’s strong pace of prime office rental growth in Amsterdam will be sustained, we still expect growth to outperform the euro-zone over the next couple of years, averaging... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising down our euro-zone GDP forecasts The ratcheting-up of sanctions on Russia and the further surge in commodity prices this week mean we are revising down our euro-zone growth forecast for 2022. Exports to Russia will collapse while... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The small rise in retail sales in January, after a steep fall in December, suggests that Omicron remained a drag on consumption. Although spending will have rebounded in February, higher energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
