Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes in December means that sales growth slowed significantly in Q4 as a whole. While we expect consumer spending to recover over the coming months when... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Supply to limit Dublin office rental revival The recovery in Dublin offices has lagged the broader economic upturn. While demand is expected to improve in 2022, with a full supply pipeline, it is likely that vacancy will stay at relatively high... 4th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains January’s inflation surprise? Most of the surprise in January’s inflation data came from energy inflation. But core inflation was also unexpectedly strong. With underlying price pressures continuing to build, there is a good... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB turns hawkish and tees up 2022 rate hikes While the ECB did not change its policy settings today, President Lagarde more than made up for it in the press conference. We now think the ECB will decide in March to taper its asset purchases... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Good times over for industrial rents in major ports While the recent improvement in world trade is encouraging for industrial demand in the major port markets, we don’t expect an acceleration in rental growth this year. Supply bottlenecks will still... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs for January confirm that the euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick back up over the rest of the... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Jan.) January’s inflation data support our view that the ECB will soon forecast inflation to be at its target over the medium term. Accordingly, we think that policymakers will end net asset purchases... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell yet again in December, to just 7.0%, capping off a remarkable year for the region’s labour market. Most of the spare capacity that built up during the pandemic now... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2021) The Q4 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that banks are contributing positively to the region’s economic recovery. It also suggests that, while house prices are rising rapidly, risks to financial... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (January) The smaller-than-anticipated fall in Germany’s inflation rate, and increase in core inflation in Portugal and Spain, suggest that underlying price pressures are continuing to build. Euro-zone... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal rebound to continue after election The Socialist Party’s victory in yesterday’s election means there will be no substantial change in economic policy, but the government should be more stable. In any case, Portugal’s economy is set to... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2021) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 came as no surprise given the country-level data published last week and shows that the euro-zone economy was struggling at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Best possible outcome for Italy By re-electing Sergio Mattarella as president and ensuring that Mario Draghi remains prime minister, Italy’s political establishment has achieved what appears to be the best possible outcome. The... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator weakened in January as the Omicron wave took a toll on economic activity, particularly in the services sector. The survey also showed that supply shortages remained... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
