Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone heading for recession? The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy was still growing at a decent pace in March, but the risk of it contracting in Q2 is rising. The main event over the weekend will be the first... 8th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Growing risk of Le Pen upset to Macron re-election bid This month’s French presidential election no longer looks like the shoo-in for incumbent Emmanuel Macron that it did only a few weeks ago. Right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen’s chances have risen... 8th April 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Short-term boost to Spanish office rents We think that a rebound in employment will help prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid to outperform the euro-zone this year. But this is likely to be short-lived, as the shift to remote... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting “Le Pen risk” & implications for financial markets While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone... 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Rate hikes are coming! The Governing Council is likely to leave its policy guidance unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting, saying it expects to end net asset purchases in Q3 and raise policy rates “some time”... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Stagflation risks rising The risk of stagflation has risen substantially. The latest surveys suggest that the economy held up pretty well in March, but the forward-looking indicators paint a much gloomier picture of the... 7th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales & German Industrial Production (Feb.) The small increases in euro-zone retail sales and German industrial production suggest that economic activity was growing at a modest pace in February. With much higher energy prices now weighing on... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update High inflation isn’t all down to pandemic and energy Pandemic-related effects and higher energy prices have played a significant part in pushing up inflation in the euro-zone, but domestically-generated “underlying” price pressures have increased too... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen’s chances of victory are increasing The chances of right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency later this month appear to have risen sharply over the past couple of weeks. A victory for Le Pen would almost... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s final euro-zone PMI surveys confirmed that output expectations fell sharply, with Germany experiencing the biggest drop. Meanwhile, price pressures remain intense across the currency union... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam and Rotterdam retail to trail With cyclical pandemic effects fading, the backdrop has improved for Dutch retail. However, having been hardest hit in 2020-21, the structural legacy of COVID-19 and higher economic barriers to... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB cannot ignore surging inflation for long With euro-zone inflation having jumped to 7.5% in March it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will accelerate its plans to tighten monetary policy. We now think it will begin raising rates as soon... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.) With euro-zone inflation rising even further above the ECB’s forecast, and likely to remain very high for the rest of the year, we think it won’t be long before the Bank starts raising interest rates. 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone exports will slow to a crawl Weakening GDP growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners – and a slump in Russia’s economy – mean that the currency union’s exports look set to grow very slowly this year. 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
