Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may need more than promises to contain spreads The prospect of tighter monetary policy in the euro-zone has raised the threat of a bigger sell-off in the region’s bond markets. If this happens, we think the ECB would ultimately intervene to... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) The decrease in euro-zone retail sales in March is the first indication from official data that the war in Ukraine is weighing on consumption. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Low equilibrium rates will limit ECB policy tightening Equilibrium real interest rates in the euro-zone appear to be below zero and lower than in most other advanced economies. We expect them to stay that way. While the ECB is likely to raise interest... 3rd May 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe’s supply problems still intense The timeliest surveys show that supply problems faced by euro-zone companies have eased a little this year, but remain intense. This will continue to weigh on production and keep inflation high. UK... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell to a new record low in March, and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the surveys also showing... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Stagflation may prolong the woes of euro-zone financial markets The latest euro-zone economic data reinforce our view that the region is headed for a year of stagflation; against this backdrop we expect that euro-zone assets and the euro will struggle over the... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2022) and Flash HICP (April) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q1 means that the region will avoid a technical recession in the first half of the year. But rising inflation and the fallout from the Ukraine war mean that GDP... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update War impact reinforces investment slowdown While Q1 investment data showed further strength, the impact of the war in Ukraine on investor sentiment, economic growth and interest rates support our view that pan-European (excl. UK) investment... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas price cap won’t solve Spain’s inflation problem The cap on the wholesale natural gas price for the Iberian market will result in a bigger fall in energy inflation in Spain than we had previously expected. It might also dampen underlying price... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (April) The further rise in headline inflation in Germany, and increase in the underlying rate in Spain, suggest that euro-zone inflation will come in around 7.4% in April. This will do nothing to change the... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property yields to rise sooner A weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates this year and next mean that we now think euro-zone all-property yields will reach their trough by the end of this year and will come... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Three key calls on the euro-zone In our latest European Economic Outlook, we set out three non-consensus forecasts for the euro-zone. First, we think inflation will overshoot expectations this year. Second, the hit that this will... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (April) The Ifo survey for April was a little stronger than we had expected and suggests that the services sector in particular is growing rapidly. But the index is still well below its pre-Ukraine war levels... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
