Europe Economics Update Macron 2.0: pension reform and cost of living in focus The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron gives him five more years to improve France’s economic potential and its public finances, with pension reform and the green transition central to... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike With several members of the ECB Governing Council coming out in favour of a July rate hike this week we are feeling more confident in our forecast that the Bank will raise its deposit rate to +0.25%... 22nd April 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in April suggests that the services sector rebound from the Covid restrictions earlier in the year is offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector. But with... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Mar.) Headline inflation rose to 7.4% in March and further increases are likely. This will put a big dent in consumer spending, so we think that 2022 will be a year of stagflation for the euro-zone. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update President Le Pen: seismic shift or five-year blip? A win for Marine Le Pen would need to be followed by a strong showing for her party in June’s legislative elections if she is to implement most of her programme. A government of national unity or... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticks to plan for now, but faster tightening likely Today’s ECB statement and press conference indicate that policymakers expect to end their net asset purchases early in Q3 and raise interest rates soon after that. With inflationary pressures still... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bright outlook for Belgium industrial rents While economic growth is forecast to slow, limited supply and further strong growth in e-commerce-related demand mean Belgium industrial rental growth is expected to outperform its pre-pandemic... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Relative equity valuations amid a bond market tantrum We suspect the sectors of the equity market where valuations are the lowest will continue to weather the storm of rising bond yields a bit better than others. Drop-In (13 th April, 16:00 SGT/09:00 BST... 12th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German Final HICP (March) and ZEW (April) Final inflation data for Germany in March and the first survey of economic sentiment for April underline the acute problems which the German economy now faces. Energy inflation and underlying price... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French presidential race still looks very close A solid result for incumbent Emmanuel Macron in yesterday’s first round of the French presidential election has helped to allay fears of a Le Pen presidency. But the latest polls still point to a very... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising costs an upside risk to German industrial rents While prime industrial rental growth in the German markets is expected to slow in the next couple of years, it will remain above its past averages. But the risks are to the upside given the rise in... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Optimistic earnings expectations may slow E-Z equities Earnings expectations for listed euro-zone companies look, as a whole, a bit optimistic to us given the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Western This feeds into our view that the region’s... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would Germany be hit by a gas embargo? A full embargo on Russian energy would force Germany to ration gas supplies to its most gas-intensive companies. This would have unpredictable knock-on effects which would cause a recession. While the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
