Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June 2026) The substantial fall in headline inflation in the euro-zone in June left it below the ECB’s forecast, and if energy prices remain around current levels it will fall again in July. This makes us more... 1st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime office outperformance to wane The limited hit to economic activity from the Iran war and our expectation that risk-free rates will fall back mean we forecast only a temporary slowdown in European commercial property value growth... 1st July 2026 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Update How much extra borrowing will the bond market tolerate? The markets would probably tolerate a rise in borrowing provided it is not too big (perhaps of up to about £15bn or 0.5% of GDP), it is primarily to invest, and it comes alongside a credible... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June (CE -0.2%, consensus 0.0%) shows that the rise in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to weigh on the housing market... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (June 2026) The national HICP data for June suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June. That would leave it below the ECB’s forecast, making it less likely that the Bank will... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro to weaken further against the US dollar Moves in relative interest rates have contributed to the euro weakening against the US dollar since early May. We think that it will fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year as the Fed hikes twice... 30th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German pension reform encouraging, but will take time Germany’s pension reforms should slow the rise in public sector pension spending a little, encourage people to remain in work for longer, and channel more savings into equities. But the benefits of... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (May 26) Net lending to commercial property totalled around £1.5bn in May, following a similar outturn in April. This was consistent with the rise in uncertainty and interest rates as a result of the Iran war... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2026) May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) The continued weakness in some leading indicators of buyer sentiment suggests that the risks to our view that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 lie to the downside. However, if... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bunds could leave Treasuries behind We expect the Treasury rally to run out of steam but think bunds could gain further, weighing on the euro. The yen may eventually fare better, though. 29th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Devolution does not guarantee economic growth The political appeal of more devolution is clear, but the economic benefits are not. So should Andy Burnham become Prime Minister and pursue devolution, he may accrue some political points but the UK... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy prices normalising; digital euro coming (in 2029) ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said this week the Bank would need to raise interest rates further, in part because energy prices were still “measurably higher” than before the Iran war... 26th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
