UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in May is not a bad welcome gift for incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham as it suggests the economy may have grown by around 0.4% q/q in Q2. But with higher energy... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth Andy Burnham is unlikely to significantly boost the economy’s sustainable growth rate, partly because it is hard to do and he’s unlikely to have long to do it, but also because his diagnosis of the... 15th July 2026 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The euro-zone’s “K-shaped” industry Industrial production has held up well since the Iran war began and output in the most energy-intensive sectors has risen. The bigger picture is that industry is in structural decline, but its... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (July 2026) Strengthening economic activity in the US is set to support a pick-up in rental growth over the next year or so, but property performance is still likely to undershoot Europe. And while renewed Iran... 14th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Bonds Update Gilt yields to fall despite political headwinds Despite incoming PM Burnham facing the tricky task of maintaining investor confidence against a fragile fiscal backdrop and the potential for a prolonged US-Iran conflict, we expect Gilt yields to... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly A recipe for oil (and fuel) price volatility While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tentative housing recovery a positive sign for wider economy We still think CPI inflation will rise from 2.8% in May to a peak of around 3.5% in early 2027 and that the resulting drag on real activity has yet to come. But tentative signs of a turnaround in the... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the bond market implications of US-Iran re-escalation Market participants have taken the return to warfare between the US and Iran in their stride. Government bond markets are likely to remain most vulnerable to a renewed surge in energy prices, even if... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU-China talks will not stop tariffs rising Recent EU initiatives aimed at slowing the rise in imports from China are unlikely to result in a radical change in approach. We think the EU will step up its trade defence measures gradually while... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lisbon office rents to outperform consensus expectations Above-average employment growth and continued demand for high-quality space mean we expect prime office rents in Lisbon will grow at a faster pace than most expect, as well as most other euro-zone... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2026) The modest rebound in buyer sentiment in June chimes with other evidence that suggests a turnaround in the housing market is underway and the downside risks to our forecast for house prices to rise by... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Increased caution from lenders won’t trigger UK commercial capital value falls The sharp decline in the balance of lenders who see commercial property prices as a positive for the availability of credit could be a sign that higher interest rates caused by the Iran war will lead... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
