Capital Daily US dollar rally has further to run despite inflation peaking After a sharp rise in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, the US dollar has dropped back a little today and may be due a pause in the very near term. But we think that the emerging monetary policy... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (June 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past couple of weeks in light of the US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Outflows could pick up again if the fragile truce falls... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key takeaways from our alternative assets roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for alternative real estate assets. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 25th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EZ fiscal policy moving from expansion to contraction Euro-zone governments look set to loosen fiscal policy by nearly half a percent of GDP this year, helping to cushion the blow to the economy from higher energy prices. But fiscal policy will be... 24th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We remain bullish on Gilts despite political headwinds Gilts have not really rallied over the past week or so despite oil prices falling further. But we think they will soon, irrespective of political headwinds. 24th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish MNB keeps the door wide open for further cuts The communications that followed the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the base rate earlier today support our view that there’s a clear path for further easing in the coming months. We... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2026) June’s flash PMI figures show that the combination of weak activity and lower oil prices are constraining price rises. This lends a bit more support to our view that the Bank of England does not need... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The flash Composite PMI for June suggests that the impact of the Iran war on activity may now be easing and, perhaps more importantly, that the worst of the Iran-related inflationary pressures may... 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (June 2026) Consumer confidence improved again in June but the mood among households is still very gloomy. Consumer spending growth is likely to be very weak in Q2 before staging a gradual recovery in Q3 as real... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No more ECB rate hikes? We have revised down our forecasts for oil and gas prices in light of developments in the Iran war and, as a result, are forecasting slightly lower inflation than we’d previously assumed. Our new base... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026) A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
