Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyds House Prices (Jun. 2026) The modest rise in the Lloyds measure of house prices (rebranded from Halifax) in June suggests that the weak housing market may be starting to turn a corner. This will have further to go if the... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (June 26) The construction sector appears to have stabilised in June as, after three straight months of falls, the headline CIPS construction PMI rose marginally, from 38.2 to 38.4. While that remains an... 6th July 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2026) May’s increase in euro-zone retail sales volumes shows that consumers kept on spending despite the drop in confidence and real incomes in Q2. It also reinforces our view that the impact of the jump in... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham on the defensive, it’s markets not rules that matter How to achieve the government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 will be a far bigger problem for prospective PM Burnham than the £4.7bn defence “black hole”. And a bit of... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Immigration to continue driving Spain’s outperformance The scale of Spain's migrant regularisation scheme, for which 1.2 million people have applied, highlights the role that immigration is playing in Spain’s economic outperformance. We expect continued... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Income returns to dominate as yields hold steady The rise in gilt yields following the Iran war has so far not led to any increase in property yields, and we expect investors will largely look through what will be a temporary spike in risk-free... 2nd July 2026 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update Heatwaves, climate change and euro-zone GDP The recent heatwave is further evidence that Europe is heavily exposed to climate change. We do not think this will impact GDP significantly this year. But over the long run it will dampen GDP growth... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal hole will hold back the recovery The Orbán administration’s pre-election spending splurge is likely to push the Hungarian government’s budget deficit towards 6.5% of GDP (on an ESA basis) by the end of this year. Our judgement is... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Council house building unlikely to be as big as Burnham promises Andy Burnham’s plans to deliver a big increase in council house building to post-Second World War levels will be expensive and would almost certainly require a chunky rise in public borrowing. The... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
