US Economics Update Fed could launch its own "funding for lending" scheme Joining the dots, it is becoming clear that the Fed, and its Chairman Ben Bernanke in particular, are considering launching a US version of the Bank of England's new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke acknowledges slowdown, but no QE3 hint Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged in his congressional testimony today that the incoming economic data had been "generally disappointing", but offerred no hint that the FOMC was close to... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The modest 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales values in May was entirely due to the fall in the sale of petroleum and coal products. In volume terms, though, overall sales actually nudged higher... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada unwilling to throw in towel Today's Bank of Canada policy statement showed that it is unwilling to throw in the towel on its previous statements that interest rates may need to rise, from the current 1%. Even so, the Bank's... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in the ZEW investor expectations index is another sign that Germany’s earlier economic resilience is over. The weakness of sentiment regarding even the region’s strongest economy supports... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) Consumer prices were unchanged in June and the annual inflation rate remained at 1.7%, underlining that the Fed can afford to focus its monetary policy on the slowdown in the real economy. Even though... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in the ZEW investor expectations index is another sign that Germany’s earlier economic resilience is over. The weakness of sentiment regarding even the region’s strongest economy supports... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update H1 is done and capital values on track for full-year decline of 6% In the first six months of 2012, all-property rental values have been surprisingly resilient to renewed recession, but the upward trend in yields that we had expected has become reality. On top of the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) UK inflation fell by more than expected for the second month in a row in June. Inflation is finally within sight of the 2% target and we still expect it to be well below the target by the end of the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are Northern house prices leading the way? Contrary to popular perception, the current divergence between house price inflation in different parts of the country is neither new, nor abnormally high. It is possible that, in time, the resilience... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects worsen as crisis broadens The outlook for the European economy has deteriorated as the euro-zone debt crisis has broadened to envelop bigger countries like Spain. Despite the growing talk of the need for growth across the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The various monetary aggregates show broad money growth is both strong and stable which, at the margin, makes a third round of quantitative easing look less warranted. In contrast, our own M3 measure... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is negative equity a positive for the housing recovery? The reluctance of homeowners who are in negative equity to sell their home and realise a loss is one explanation for the sharp fall in the visible inventory over the past few years. Nevertheless... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
