Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada's new economic forecasts, presented in its July Monetary Policy Report, still look too optimistic, mainly because of its rosy domestic assumptions. Although the bank's lower near... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More bad news for the Russian economy June’s raft of activity data confirmed that strong growth in the first quarter of the year is likely to be the high watermark for the Russian economy in 2012. We think growth slowed to around 4.0% in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The UAE’s energy policy should help to ease supply concerns Today’s announcement that the UAE has approved plans for its first nuclear power plant should help to reduce fears that even more oil will have to be used for domestic consumption rather than exported... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jul.) The latest regional figures show that the economic recovery in the Midlands has lost considerable pace. Meanwhile, although the official figures show that employment has continued to grow in most of... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The improvement in housing starts in June was further evidence that the housing recovery is holding up even as the wider economic recovery has lost a considerable amount of momentum. 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs cast doubt on depth of recovery There is still no sign of a meaningful recovery in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains. Admittedly, this largely... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government guarantees are a positive step, but may not do much The Government’s new scheme to use its balance sheet to boost private sector infrastructure spending is a step in the right direction. However, there are a number of reasons why the eventual boost to... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian equities should still perform relatively well Having been one of the darlings of the international markets over the past 18 months or so, Colombian equities have had a torrid time in recent weeks. But they remain amongst the best performing in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Rumoured RPI changes not a reason for concern Rumoured changes to the way in which the RPI is calculated may have a detrimental impact on the value of property with an index-linked lease. But even if any changes to the RPI are made, which is very... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) & Labour market (May/Jun.) The vote to do more quantitative easing (QE) this month was not unanimous, but the tone of the minutes was nonetheless pretty dovish. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced before the... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Despite safe-haven status, Swiss property yields likely to rise We think that the safe-haven status of Switzerland’s commercial property market has allowed Swiss all-property yields to fall to very low levels. But now they look stretched and vulnerable to a... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the weaker euro rescue Ireland? Ireland’s extraordinarily open economy and strong trade links outside the euro-zone mean that it stands to gain more than other peripheral economies from the depreciation of the euro. But the currency... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How much lower will the homeownership rate get? Over the next few years, it’s plausible that tight credit, subdued confidence and many more foreclosures will drive the homeownership rate down to 64%, from 65.4% now. Over a longer horizon, the case... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices vulnerable again to QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have recently been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the US central bank. This explains the initial market disappointment that Chairman... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
