China Activity Monitor Growth steadied at end-Q2 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the broad economy stopped weakening in June, providing some support to the view that activity will pick up in the next few quarters. 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Olympics explains part of the employment puzzle A close look at last week’s figures suggests that some of the apparent divergence between the strong employment and weak GDP figures may be explained by the Olympics. Come Games time, more than 100... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Political tensions on the rise in Thailand Political tensions have intensified in Thailand due to the government’s efforts to amend the constitution. There is a significant chance that the proposed reforms could trigger a political deadlock... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's oil price rebounds, but will it last? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Record cereal prices not a big inflation threat Some agricultural commodity prices have hit record highs this week, but the rate of increase of these prices is much lower than it was in 2007 or 2011, while energy prices are still lower than they... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Hopes of near-term policy boost fade further Developments last week confirmed that support for the periphery from the region’s core governments will be slow in coming. Some attention has turned back to the ECB for policy support, but it has very... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates more likely to fall than rise The Mexican Central Bank (BANXICO) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% this afternoon. Strong economic growth and a recent pick-up in inflation mean that the three-year pause may last a while longer... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun. 12) June's rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 2.0% from 1.8%, mainly reflects transportation base year effects. With inflation expectations well anchored and economic growth likely to remain... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 now a 50-50 call It is a very close call as to whether the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases in the second half of this year. We expect growth to continue slightly below the economy's... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to fall further before 2013 recovery Despite recent output cuts, we think that platinum prices have further to fall. We have pencilled in a low of $1,300 per oz for early 2013, from current levels of around $1,420. Given rising costs in... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why we expect weaker growth than the IMF The IMF downgraded its global growth forecasts last week including those for Japan, but they still remain well above our own. In this Weekly we explain why our forecasts differ from theirs and where... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response UK Commercial Property Data Response The latest RICS data suggest that, over the next six to nine months, developers anticipate the commercial property occupier market staying pretty flat. That is not unreasonable, but given that the... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jun. 12) June’s public finance figures continued the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position evident since the beginning of the financial year. 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Disappointing activity data point to rate cuts The latest activity data from Colombia indicate that the economy slowed further in Q2. As a result, while policymakers may await concrete evidence that the recent consumer credit boom has ended, it... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The other house price divide: new vs. existing house prices The recent outperformance by new-build house prices reflects two factors. First, the increasing use of sales incentives by housebuilders, and second, catch-up growth following a period of... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
