Energy Watch Recovery in oil prices is poorly supported The partial recovery in oil prices over the last month is based on shaky ground. An immediate meltdown in the euro-zone may have been averted, but Europe is sliding into a deep recession and the risks... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold as balance of payments troubles persist The decision by Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold was unsurprising. Although the economy is weak and inflationary pressures subdued, political instability will keep pressure on... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are lower mortgage rates supporting housing demand? News of mortgage rates falling to fresh lows may have become an almost weekly occurrence, but there’s relatively little evidence that this is translating into stronger housing demand among mortgage... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Some signs of progress Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in July, which would be slightly better than the 80,000 gain in June. This would still mean that employment... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (May) May's payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that second-quarter wages and salaries increased by close to 7.0% annualised, more than double... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears about impact of downgrade overdone The news that the economy contracted for a third successive quarter has led to renewed warnings that the UK will lose its AAA credit rating. We have long been of the view that the weakness of the... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders figures provide a upside risk to our forecast that GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, but not one large enough to warrant changing the forecast... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial rent outlook is weakest in Hungary and Czech Republic Exports to the troubled, peripheral euro-zone economies account for a relatively high share of GDP in both Hungary and the Czech Republic. And the open nature of both economies also leaves them... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s weak growth to prompt more policy loosening Today’s GDP data from Korea show that the economy grew at a sub-trend pace in the second quarter. Given that tackling inflation is no longer policymakers’ top priority, more stimulus measures are... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey seems to confirm that strong investor interest is supporting the value of prime property relatively well, with poorer quality stock bearing the brunt of... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus One year on, has Peru’s Humala lost his way? Ollanta Humala’s first year as Peru’s president has been a bittersweet one. While markets have warmed to the ex-army officer’s emergence as a pragmatic centrist, his poor rural support base appears to... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syrian crisis: are fears of oil supply disruptions justified? The increase in oil prices over the past few weeks has been partly blamed on the escalation in tensions in Syria, which has raised fresh concerns of supply disruptions. But unless the Syrian crisis... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in the Philippines, more loosening likely by year-end The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) today cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%. With inflationary pressures set to remain low and global demand likely to disappoint this year, we expect further policy... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest monetary data provide no indication that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are prompting banks to lend more to the wider economy. 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish GDP growth probably slowed to 3% in Q2 The raft of recently released data from Poland suggests that GDP growth may have slowed to around 3.0% y/y in Q2, down from 3.5% y/y in Q1. And we suspect that growth in the second half of the year... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
