UK Economics Weekly Massive revision needed to alter the big picture Last week’s surprisingly poor GDP figures once again called into question the reliability of the data. But the weakness is consistent with the low level of construction orders and the slowdown in the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar another drag on growth The recent increase in the dollar, to close to a two-year high against the euro, represents another headwind for US exporters when they already have to contend with the easing in demand in Europe and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are consumers retreating? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 1.5% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter shows that the economy has lost a fair amount of momentum this year. Nonetheless, the recent run of data probably hasn’t been quite weak enough to... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2 12) The very modest increase in the homeownership rate in Q2 does not persuade us to alter our view that the share of the population who own their home will fall further over the next couple of years... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy prices determining inflation in Japan The latest figures for the consumer price index in June showed the economy continues to struggle to escape deflation. Underlying price pressures remain very weak with energy prices determining short... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market improvement unlikely to be sustained Labour market conditions have steadily improved since the economic recovery took hold in mid-2009. This improvement, however, is partly due to a sharp rebound in construction activity. Although... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Could nominal bond yields fall even further below zero? The emergence of negative yields on some short-dated government bonds raises the question of whether they could fall even further. We suspect the answer is yes, at least in those European countries... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Three little words The markets got very excited about three little words at the end of last week. Spanish and Italian bond yields plunged, and the euro and euro-zone stock markets rose sharply, in response to ECB... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (June) House prices rose far more slowly in the second quarter than in the first. Thus the upswing in the Land Registry measure of house price inflation is likely to be reversed before long. 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry over spike in agricultural prices The prices of many agricultural commodities have risen strongly over the past couple of months, raising fears of a sharp rise in inflation across the region. However, we believe the recent spike in... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Improvement in misery index may not last A look at the so-called misery index, a simple sum of the unemployment and inflation rates, suggests that households should be starting to feel a bit happier. But we think that the recent improvement... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil still struggling The Brazilian economy continues to struggle. Having expanded by a meagre 0.2% q/q in the first quarter of this year, there are few signs that growth picked up in Q2. Elsewhere in the region, growth... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More bond purchases, but no boost for the ESM Despite President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the ECB appears unlikely to follow up July’s interest rate cut with further significant policy announcements at... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A disappointing Q2 Deepening problems in the euro-zone continue to take their toll on Emerging Europe. Most of the region’s economies appear to have weakened in Q2. Even the region’s strongest performers, Russia and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
