UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial figures suggested that the drop in GDP in Q2 is likely to be revised to a slightly smaller fall. But the figures did not change the overall picture of a sector struggling to grow in... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that sales growth returned to lacklustre rates following the Jubilee celebrations. We might yet see an Olympics boost to spending, but this is... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia pauses, but one more rate cut is on the way The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its policy rate at 3.5% today. It probably won't be long until the RBA cuts again, but it is nearing the end of its loosening cycle. 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Full nationalisation could be required to boost lending Some people had pointed to the more upbeat surveys as evidence that the Q2 GDP figures were understating the strength of the economy. But the fall in July’s CIPS/Markit surveys diminished this... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
No respite in sight The short-term outlook for economic growth across the euro-zone is poor. All member states are likely to contract in 2013, if not 2012. The recession in the euro-zone will also act as a major drag on... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bounce in the euro likely to prove temporary The euro touched its highest level against the dollar in over a month on Monday, as the exchange rate temporarily climbed above $1.24. Yet we doubt it will be long before Europe’s single currency... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower tin output will not be enough to stop price decline Falling global demand for tin, due to slower economic growth, thrifting and substitution, means we expect tin prices to drop from $17,900 per tonne today to around $16,500 by the end of 2013 despite... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF approves funding for Morocco and Jordan The decision by the IMF to approve funding for Morocco and Jordan will reduce the risks of a balance of payments crisis in the immediate term. But both economies remain fragile. While Morocco is... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF/ECB support for Spain: some unanswered questions The ECB’s statement last week that it might buy Spanish bonds if the government first applies for EFSF support has left many questions unanswered, which we address in this Update. In short, it seems... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Don’t fret about June’s weak sales figures Home sales fell by 5.6% m/m in June, the largest monthly decline for 16 months. But this is unlikely to signal that the recovery in housing demand has run out of steam already. For one, pending home... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy starting to show signs of weakness The drop in Saudi Arabia’s PMI in July suggests that although the non-oil economy is growing at a healthy pace, it is beginning to run out of steam. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real pay finally to start rising Real pay is finally about to start rising again. But the need for households to repair their balance sheets will keep the recovery in consumer spending modest. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (July) Mixed messages in the housing market over the past few months are slowly giving way to evidence of a downwards trend. With forward-looking indicators also weak and if anything softening, house prices... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia continues to outperform Indonesia’s economy picked up slightly in the second quarter, despite weaker export demand. Indonesia is weathering the global slowdown well compared with other countries in the region. We expect GDP... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Nominal bonds yields turn negative The ten year Bund yield fell by about 30bp in July, almost fully reversing the rise seen in June. The decrease reflected a fresh intra-euro-zone “flight-to-safety” as ten year government bond yields... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
