US Economics Weekly Fed will do more, but QE3 is not the best option We now think that the Fed will provide more policy stimulus when the FOMC next meets in September. The most likely scenario is a third round of asset purchases (QE3), this time focusing on mortgage... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to ease The anaemic rate of Canadian economic growth is becoming a major concern, particularly when the chances are that growth will only slow further in the second half of this year. Before the end of this... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB ups the pressure on governments The ECB’s statement last week that it might buy more peripheral government bonds if countries first apply to the EFSF for support was a step forward. But Spain and Italy are not yet willing to accept... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro break-up should be a game-changer for gold We expect the exit of one or more countries from the euro-zone to drive the price of gold significantly higher. For now, the precious metal is losing out to other safe havens, notably the US dollar... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The bigger than expected 163,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, up from a muted 64,000 in June, will ease fears that the US economy is following Europe into recession. If this proves to be the... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Full nationalisation could be required to boost lending The Bank of England’s new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) got underway last week. If the FLS doesn’t work, more radical action to boost bank lending will be needed. 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local governments’ stimulus won’t fuel a sharp rebound Local governments across China have unveiled a series of stimulus plans, echoing the recent message from top authorities of the need to ensure strong growth. More stimulus plans are likely to follow... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trouble in Japan's labour market The recent fall in Japan’s unemployment rate looks less encouraging when we consider that the level of employment has been little changed for three years. Much of the decline in unemployment is due to... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Personal Insolvencies (Q2) The fall in personal insolvencies in Q2 echoes other evidence suggesting that households are finding it easier to cope with their debts. The easing squeeze on real incomes should help them further... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on services was thankfully not as bad as the manufacturing survey released earlier this week. But it was not that good either. Even leaving aside temporary factors, the big... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No quick fix to India and Pakistan’s power problems India attracted international headlines for all the wrong reasons (again) following massive power cuts that left half of its population without electricity for two days. Power cuts are alsoa big issue... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Confidence and credit remain in short supply The majority of the data over the past month support our view that the UK housing market will continue to experience a gradual correction over the next few years. The Funding for Lending scheme may go... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the UK join the negative yield club? Gilt yields at the short end of the curve reached a new record low today and currently stand only a whisker above zero. If concerns about UK banks build, or if official interest rates fall further... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to do “whatever it takes” President Draghi’s comments at today’s ECB press conference were a blow to hopes that the Bank might quickly make huge bond purchases to address the euro-zone’s escalating debt crisis. While the Bank... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
